The "Century-Long Battle" of the Fed's Rate Cuts in 2026

Inside the Federal Reserve, the most intense disagreement in nearly six years is unfolding.
Regarding "how much to cut and when," officials are almost at each other's throats—
One faction advocates for a cumulative rate cut of over 100 basis points within the year,
stating that the current interest rate level of 3.5%–3.75% is continuously suppressing the economy;
The other faction is staunchly defending the inflation guardrail, insisting on a maximum of 25 basis points per cut, refusing to yield.
The two sides are diametrically opposed, with little room for compromise.
This dispute is not an ideological battle but a raw reality contest.
Doves' data is straightforward: consumer momentum continues to slow, manufacturing indices fluctuate near the expansion-contraction line;
More critically, the US debt scale of $38 trillion means annual interest expenses have already reached $1.3 trillion.
Simple calculations show that a one-time 100 basis point rate cut could save about $400 billion,
which could ease fiscal pressure and create room for the economy and mid-term elections.
The hawks' concerns are equally real: will inflation flare up again?
Will the costs of previous tightening be for nothing?
Among the 12 committee members, 3 have already voted against, and such a high level of disagreement
itself sends an unusually strong signal.⸻The crypto market
has already sensed the shift in tone. Recently, BTC has repeatedly hovered around the $90,000 mark,
with sentiment swinging sharply between anticipation and hesitation.
Historical experience repeatedly proves—each rate cut cycle
is often a liquidity accelerator for crypto assets.
We have seen extreme liquidations of $700 million in a single day,
as well as continuous surges driven by liquidity.
Loose policy can amplify trends; but if expectations fall short, risks will also be quickly exposed.
The key question is: what if a 100 basis point rate cut actually happens?
Breaking through the $100,000 mark for BTC and an "epic" rally for ETH are no longer just talk.
But what if the rate cut is less aggressive than expected? High-volatility assets are likely to be the first to retreat,
and the market will re-enter a phase of directional guessing and oscillation.⸻The global chessboard,
is unfolding simultaneously. Notably, the global rate-cut wave has already begun—Russia, the UK, and other countries are turning to easing.
The Fed's final decision is like a key: either opening the floodgates for the crypto market's "water rising tide,"
or continuing to pressure the market, repeatedly digesting expectations amid uncertainty.
Trump's ongoing pressure and every latest economic data release will become key bargaining chips in this game.
The storm is coming; who is swimming naked, is obvious at a glance. #美联储降息周期