## Miners Capitulate as Bitcoin Fluctuates Near US$ 90,000; Short Positions Reach US$ 250 Million

The structural pressure on the Bitcoin network has intensified in recent weeks, with the digital currency facing resistance around US$ 90,000 while large investors accumulate short positions. The context reveals a combination of technical challenges, reduced liquidity, and strategic resource reallocation impacting both miners and the price of the main cryptocurrency.

## The Mining Sector's Capitulation and Its Implications

VanEck's report documents a critical scenario for mining operators: a 4% drop in the hash rate, the most pronounced since mid-2024, alongside a 9% monthly contraction in Bitcoin's price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025. This combination forces less efficient miners to shut down equipment to avoid immediate operational losses.

The shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in Xinjiang exemplifies this reconfiguration. The decision reflects the reallocation of 1.3 GW of energy capacity to artificial intelligence data centers, an activity currently offering higher returns. Estimates indicate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost, concentrating mining among operators with access to more competitive energy sources.

## Cost Compression and Economic Viability

For the Bitmain S19 XP equipment, the breakeven point for electricity costs has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh over twelve months, a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this compression face increasing risks of becoming unviable. Despite the challenging scenario, at least 13 countries already support Bitcoin mining through state policies, seeking energy or monetary sovereignty.

Historically, periods of hash rate decline have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days, with an average return of 72% over six months. This pattern suggests that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure.

## Technical Dynamics and Reduced Liquidity

Bitcoin retreats to around US$ 87,700 after another failed attempt to break the US$ 90,000 resistance. This level remains a crucial short-term technical reference, concentrating selling volume and limit orders over recent weeks. The inability to surpass it keeps the asset confined within a narrow sideways range, with high volatility and no clear direction.

On the four-hour chart, continuous rejections occur at the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages, which act as dynamic resistance delineating medium-term control zones. As long as the price remains below these levels, the likelihood of lateral continuation or new support tests remains high. Reclaiming this level is a necessary condition for a more robust bullish structure.

## Technical Divergences and Constructive Signals

Despite the current price weakness, momentum indicators show constructive signals. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) marks progressively higher lows while the price forms lower lows, characterizing a classic bullish divergence. Similar setups in previous cycles preceded significant technical movements.

The BTC/XAU ratio also indicates technical compression, with gold approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce while Bitcoin loses relative value. QCP Capital highlights that liquidity tends to remain reduced during the holiday season, amplifying both continuation moves and sharp reactions to macroeconomic data.

## Institutional Short Positions and Market Context

Recent data indicate that large investors have accumulated short positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana totaling approximately US$ 250 million. This movement reflects a strategy of protection against the risk of further corrections, not necessarily aggressive directional bets. However, the impact of these positions becomes more relevant in a compressed liquidity environment.

The reduced depth in order books amplifies market sensitivity to smaller trades, increasing short-term volatility. Near the end of the year, many traders have reduced exposure to preserve accumulated gains, a seasonal behavior that contributes to a global liquidity contraction and raises the probability of abrupt movements.

## Gold Decoupling and Capital Flows

Bitcoin diverges from its historical pattern of positive correlation with precious metals in risk-averse environments. While gold and silver reach new all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, the crypto asset does not follow the same capital flow. This divergence suggests a more complex liquidity dynamic, where conversions between different assets (including currency movements like converting yen to reais in emerging markets) reflect strategic global reallocations.

The market awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital with significant volume, a necessary trigger to break the US$ 90,000 resistance and restore a clear directional trend. Until this catalyst materializes, Bitcoin remains confined to sideways consolidation, testing lower zones in search of sufficient demand to absorb increasing supply.