Imagine a dramatic shift in the energy geopolitical landscape. Venezuela has long been China's largest creditor, and Europe's dependence on a certain major country's oil has also been built up over many years. If the Middle East's energy monopoly is broken, and Russia's oil and gas export routes are cut off, what kind of reshaping will the entire global energy supply chain undergo?

This is not purely a political topic but a prerequisite for market pricing.

Interestingly, many investors today resemble the "Peaceful New Human" described in "The Three-Body Problem"—they have grown up during relatively stable twenty years and have long forgotten the inflation shocks caused by energy crises and supply chain disruptions. Trade barriers and geopolitical conflicts dominate the news, but they seem not to truly shake the market's risk pricing.

But what if the conflicts truly escalate?

How will the commodity cycle shift? Will the position structures undergo significant adjustments? Those still assuming "ample energy and free trade" in their asset allocation strategies may need to reconsider. Will geopolitical premiums re-enter the market? This is a question worth pondering repeatedly.