#美股AI概念股普涨
JPMorgan Mid-Year Investment Report Analysis:
The AI supercycle is still ongoing, reducing cash holdings + physical asset allocation
JPMorgan Wealth Management issued a mid-2026 outlook report on June 1, targeting high-net-worth clients. Against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushing up oil prices, rising inflation, and the AI narrative shifting from frenzy to skepticism, the overall tone of this report is cautiously optimistic, but with a need to adjust specific investment allocations.
JPM believes that the three major global risks (fragmentation, inflation, disruptive AI) are overly pessimistically priced by the market, and the current volatility is precisely the entry window.
① The AI supercycle has not ended; the market is overly pessimistic.
The five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Google, Amazon) expect over $650 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, up $130 billion from the previous earnings season. AI-related investments contributed 25 basis points to U.S. real GDP growth in 2025. Taiwan’s GDP growth exceeded 7%, the fastest since 2010, driven mainly by semiconductor exports. JPM believes the market is pricing in an "AI peak," but data does not support this narrative. ② However, the financial characteristics of hyperscalers are changing. Free cash flow is expected to decline from $240 billion in 2024 to about $73 billion by the end of 2026. Microsoft’s forward P/E has fallen from the high of 35 during the AI era to 22.5. These companies are shifting from "asset-light high returns" to "heavy asset high investment," and the market is still digesting this transition.
③ SaaS is experiencing a hidden slaughter. About half of the components in the S&P Software Index (IGV) have fallen more than 50% from their historical highs. JPM’s "AI vulnerable stocks" basket has fallen nearly 20% this year. In the private credit market, 21% of exposure is in software companies, with technology and business services rising to 40%. The impact of AI on subscription-based software business models is already happening.
④ The inflation bottom is higher than pre-pandemic levels, and cash is slowly bleeding out. U.S. core PCE was already sticky at 3% before energy shocks. Since the 2020s, consumer prices have increased by 25%, but core fixed income has only earned 6%. JPM’s clients have nearly 20% of their assets in cash and short-term bonds. The report’s clear message: what you think is hedging is actually losing money.
⑤ The Strait of Hormuz blockade is the largest oil supply shock since World War II, but JPM believes it’s a good opportunity to buy on dips. Oil prices nearly doubled, U.S. stocks experienced about a 10% correction, and the S&P 500 P/E ratio briefly fell below 20. JPM’s historical data shows that buying when the VIX breaks above 30 has a 70% to 83% chance of positive returns within six months, with an average return of 12.4%.
⑥ Emerging markets may present opportunities in the second half of the year.
EM corporate earnings are expected to grow 46%, with a P/E ratio of only 11.8. Taiwan and South Korea are core nodes in the AI hardware supply chain. Latin America holds over 40% of the world’s copper and nearly 60% of lithium reserves. Chinese stocks are trading at the deepest discount to other Asian markets in 20 years, with JPM’s stance shifting to "cautiously warming."
JPMorgan Mid-Year Investment Report Analysis:
The AI supercycle is still ongoing, reducing cash holdings + physical asset allocation
JPMorgan Wealth Management issued a mid-2026 outlook report on June 1, targeting high-net-worth clients. Against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushing up oil prices, rising inflation, and the AI narrative shifting from frenzy to skepticism, the overall tone of this report is cautiously optimistic, but with a need to adjust specific investment allocations.
JPM believes that the three major global risks (fragmentation, inflation, disruptive AI) are overly pessimistically priced by the market, and the current volatility is precisely the entry window.
① The AI supercycle has not ended; the market is overly pessimistic.
The five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Google, Amazon) expect over $650 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, up $130 billion from the previous earnings season. AI-related investments contributed 25 basis points to U.S. real GDP growth in 2025. Taiwan’s GDP growth exceeded 7%, the fastest since 2010, driven mainly by semiconductor exports. JPM believes the market is pricing in an "AI peak," but data does not support this narrative. ② However, the financial characteristics of hyperscalers are changing. Free cash flow is expected to decline from $240 billion in 2024 to about $73 billion by the end of 2026. Microsoft’s forward P/E has fallen from the high of 35 during the AI era to 22.5. These companies are shifting from "asset-light high returns" to "heavy asset high investment," and the market is still digesting this transition.
③ SaaS is experiencing a hidden slaughter. About half of the components in the S&P Software Index (IGV) have fallen more than 50% from their historical highs. JPM’s "AI vulnerable stocks" basket has fallen nearly 20% this year. In the private credit market, 21% of exposure is in software companies, with technology and business services rising to 40%. The impact of AI on subscription-based software business models is already happening.
④ The inflation bottom is higher than pre-pandemic levels, and cash is slowly bleeding out. U.S. core PCE was already sticky at 3% before energy shocks. Since the 2020s, consumer prices have increased by 25%, but core fixed income has only earned 6%. JPM’s clients have nearly 20% of their assets in cash and short-term bonds. The report’s clear message: what you think is hedging is actually losing money.
⑤ The Strait of Hormuz blockade is the largest oil supply shock since World War II, but JPM believes it’s a good opportunity to buy on dips. Oil prices nearly doubled, U.S. stocks experienced about a 10% correction, and the S&P 500 P/E ratio briefly fell below 20. JPM’s historical data shows that buying when the VIX breaks above 30 has a 70% to 83% chance of positive returns within six months, with an average return of 12.4%.
⑥ Emerging markets may present opportunities in the second half of the year.
EM corporate earnings are expected to grow 46%, with a P/E ratio of only 11.8. Taiwan and South Korea are core nodes in the AI hardware supply chain. Latin America holds over 40% of the world’s copper and nearly 60% of lithium reserves. Chinese stocks are trading at the deepest discount to other Asian markets in 20 years, with JPM’s stance shifting to "cautiously warming."
