Looking at recent public opinion, it seems everyone is saying that the market has stabilized and is about to rebound. But if you carefully analyze the sentiment and capital flow, you'll find that the market is actually still hesitating.

Bitcoin is a typical example. The price hasn't shown obvious downward pressure, but every rebound needs to be repeatedly verified; the decline isn't large, yet it always manages to shake out retail investors trying to bottom fish. This doesn't look like a strong trend at all, but rather like big funds cautiously probing each other at high levels. The actual amount of chips continuously adding positions isn't that much.

Hot news can give the market a temporary boost, but the excitement comes quickly and goes just as fast. Trading volume is the true touchstone. If volume can't keep up, these bursts of enthusiasm only stay in group chats and posts, and can't translate into price increases. That's why recent market movements are stuck at this strange point of "seems like it wants to move but hasn't moved."

On the Ethereum side, the disagreement is even more painful. Bulls emphasize fundamentals and ecosystem stories, while bears focus on short-term patterns and capital efficiency. Both sides' logic isn't wrong; the trouble is—short-term prices are dictated by capital, not faith. Overall risk appetite hasn't significantly increased, making it difficult for ETH to move independently of the broader market.

Many people are falling into a trap now, mistaking "not falling" for "about to rise." The real situation is that a sideways market is best at wearing people down, making both bulls and bears feel uncomfortable. In such an environment, chasing the trend is prohibitively costly. Opportunities do exist, but they require more patience and careful selection.