2026-01-02 15:24:41

Everyone, pour yourself a cup of coffee and take your time to read. I am still the analyst who often takes the contrarian view in a bull market. Today, I need to dissect the trending topic that has been flooding the screens: Ethereum reaching $10,000 by 2026. This has caused a stir in major communities, and those influencers on Twitter have spoken convincingly, as if it will happen the day after tomorrow. But before you leverage your real estate holdings, let me use the perspective I’ve honed over eight years in bear markets to reveal the uncomfortable truths behind this "dream."

**Trap 1: The Scam of Linear Historical Extrapolation**

A common argument goes like this: "Look, from 2017 to 2021, Ethereum rose from a few hundred dollars to five thousand dollars. At this rate, breaking $10,000 in the next cycle is a sure thing." This logic sounds impeccable, but it is precisely the most deadly thinking trap in the crypto world.

Let’s use data to shatter this illusion.

Back in 2017, the entire crypto market was only a trillion dollars in size, and Ethereum was just a promising "youngster" full of potential. Now? The crypto market has grown into a monster worth several trillion dollars, and Ethereum has become the infrastructure supporting hundreds of billions in assets. To multiply its size tenfold again, how much astronomical capital influx would be required? It’s like expecting Yao Ming to grow another few inches every year—completely against basic laws of nature.

And here’s a harsh reality: the narrative’s hype is waning. Every epic surge in Ethereum’s past was backed by a brand-new, explosive story—smart contract revolution, DeFi wave, NFT frenzy… each one was something the market had never seen before. Now? The market is already experiencing aesthetic fatigue. When someone announces "another coin," people’s reactions are no longer surprise but numbness.

ETH-2.02%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

18 Likes

Reward
18
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TerraNeverForget

· 01-05 14:43

Yao Ming's analogy was perfect; it's really hard to come up with new stories anymore. --- Another dream of linear extrapolation, wake up everyone. --- This guy survived the bear market, so he still carries some weight when he speaks. --- Wait, is the market size really this big now? I need to recalculate. --- Narrative decay really hit me; I'm truly experiencing aesthetic fatigue. --- That comment about real estate leverage, I’ve seen someone actually do it. --- Breaking 10,000 is difficult, but let’s not say it’s impossible. --- Going from a few hundred to five thousand and then to ten thousand requires a completely different level of capital. --- There are always new stories to support each time; now everything new has been mined. --- This guy is reliable, at least he doesn’t follow the trend blindly. --- Thinking that infrastructure worth hundreds of billions can increase tenfold is really just wishful thinking.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityWitch

· 01-05 09:22

nah this linear extrapolation angle is just alchemy without the gold... dude's been brewing this narrative but the liquidity mechanics don't lie. market's already transmuted from hungry micro-cap fever dreams into a bloated infrastructure play, and that's where the curse kicks in fr

Reply0

DYORMaster

· 01-03 17:41

Yao Ming's analogy about growing taller was perfect; indeed, how big a heart does the current bag-holder need? --- That's reasonable, but I still want to take a gamble. After all, I'm just a rookie. --- I'm already tired of the linear extrapolation approach; those big influencers on Twitter just like to bluff like that. --- The fatigue from aesthetic weariness really hit me; it definitely doesn't have the same sense of surprise as before. --- The problem is that big funds might not think the same way; the logic for institutional entry is different. --- Listening to the idea of leveraging real estate is just for fun; anyone actually doing that must be pretty clueless. --- 2026 is too far away; right now, I'm more concerned about whether we can hit a certain number by the end of this year. --- The value of an eight-year bear market is real; I only believe in that one sentence from you. --- Astronomical figures are not wrong, but there are too many black swans in the crypto world; who knows what might happen. --- There should still be a new narrative, otherwise this game would be too boring.

View OriginalReply0

SorryRugPulled

· 01-02 15:54

Is this set coming again? Every day someone says it will reach ten thousand dollars, but what’s the result? Still stuck in the same place. Just listen, don’t really go all-in on real estate. Narrative fatigue hits the mark. Now no one is buying into air coins anymore. Linear extrapolation of history? That trick to fool rookies is okay, but forget about fooling me. With the size standing here, Ethereum can no longer double in value like it did when it was young. I’ve already said it, this cycle isn’t as crazy as the last one. Influencers keep dreaming every day, wake up everyone.

View OriginalReply0

BankruptcyArtist

· 01-02 15:54

Yao Ming growing taller every year is a perfect metaphor, haha, but I still don't believe it. Big Vs love this logic of "it has grown so much in the past, so it will definitely be fine in the future," they can really brainwash people. Size is indeed the key; now to multiply tenfold again, how much money would it take to pour in? Who has such a big appetite? The fatigue from novelty is spot on; the freshness is long gone, leaving only new tricks to cut leeks. I would rather wait for a bear market to pick up bargains than get caught in this inflated bubble. Those guys who say they leverage real estate, wake up—this strategy could bankrupt you. Just judging by the narrative heat, you can tell the stage of the market; this is not bragging by analysts. Wait, is there really no new story anymore, or are we just numb and can't see it?

View OriginalReply0

MissedTheBoat

· 01-02 15:53

Really, I've heard this linear extrapolation argument so many times, always the same way of cutting the leeks... That analogy from Yao Ming was perfect, it hit the nail on the head, the scale is different now, friends. I'm really feeling the fatigue from aesthetic overload; now I look at any coin and feel nothing, truly. $10,000, sounds nice, but the key question is who will take the other side? That's the core issue. Every cycle has a new story, is there anything new now? Can't think of anything. Those big V influencers speak with full confidence, I bet five bucks they haven't even figured out how to close their leverage positions. History doesn't repeat itself, it only rhymes—that's the most accurate saying in the crypto world. The scale is there, math doesn't lie, although both of us have missed some opportunities. Stable infrastructure actually means there's no story anymore—that's the paradox. Another year, another prediction emperor上线, comes around every year, it's hilarious.

View OriginalReply0

SchrodingerProfit

· 01-02 15:52

Another linear extrapolation dream, I really can't take it anymore. --- Honestly, this kind of logical flaw has been exposed long ago, and people are still talking about the period from 2017 to 2021. --- Don't you have a sense of scale? How much money would it take to multiply ten more times now? --- The point about aesthetic fatigue is spot on. Who still gets fooled by some coin now? --- Wait, so does this guy mean that breaking 10,000 for ETH is impossible? Then why are so many still hyping it? --- The analogy of Yao Ming growing taller is brilliant; I understand it immediately. --- Every day "the next tenfold coin," it's truly numbingly repetitive. --- History repeats, but not linearly. Too many people still haven't understood this. --- Narrative decay is actually the core issue; without a new story, nothing can be hyped up.

View OriginalReply0

GhostInTheChain

· 01-02 15:47

Another linear extrapolation dream, really annoying. If you're still believing in this, you need to wake up. --- The scale is no longer comparable to 2017, these big V influencers just know how to tell stories. --- Basically, there's no new narrative left, and the fatigue from aesthetics hit the nerve. The crypto world is all the same. --- That analogy with Yao Ming was spot on, right to the point. --- I'm truly amazed by those leveraging real estate; their mindset must be extremely inflated. --- Trillions in market cap and still trying to tenfold? Calculate how much incremental capital is needed, everyone. --- It's really just a lack of stories; DeFi and NFTs are old news, and the market is truly numb. --- Linear thinking is the biggest killer in crypto; many people have fallen victim to it.

View OriginalReply0

UncleWhale

· 01-02 15:37

Yao Ming's analogy was perfect, much more reasonable than those who call out signals daily.

View OriginalReply0