Entering the first day of the new year, it's worth analyzing the走势 of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the short term, both BTC and ETH are in a state of oscillation with a偏弱 trend, with rebounds always显得力不从心, and the highs gradually moving lower. But is it a彻底掉头? Not necessarily.

Let's discuss the基本面. The New Year's holiday caused a明显萎缩 in market liquidity, and in the past two days,资金 in spot ETFs have been flowing out, which is a暂时的阵痛. Coupled with the Japanese央行's rate hike actions, global流动性 is indeed tightening, and market情绪 has once fallen into the"极端恐惧" zone. It sounds quite吓人, but upon reflection— the预期 of the Federal Reserve降息 in 2026 has basically been confirmed, with an expectation of 2-3 cuts. Institutions have been长期囤积, especially with Ethereum交易所的库存处于低位, all of which are中期的支撑因素.

On the technical side, the短板 is also evident. Recently,弱势明显, rebounds乏力, and the trend's高点 are不断下移— this is a事实 we must承认.

Regarding操作, the建议 is as follows: Bitcoin can look for opportunities to做空 in the 89200 to 89700 range, with下方目标 aiming at around 88000. Ethereum should be布局在3000 to 3020附近, with目标位 at around 2950. In summary,短期韧性受到考验, but don't忽视中期的支撑条件— this波调整可能只是呼吸.