Layout 2026

Understanding cycles is the key to navigating them. The traditional four-year halving cycle theory suggests that after the bull market peak in 2025, 2026 will be a turning point from a bull to a bear market, with market consolidation. It is unlikely that 2026 will see a "altcoin season" like 2021's widespread rally. The reasons behind this are rooted in three profound structural changes:
1. Capital siphoning effect: Institutional funds mainly flow into Bitcoin and Ethereum through ETFs, leaving new projects and small altcoins little room to grow.
2. Valuation and selling pressure: Many new projects are listed with extremely high fully diluted valuations (FDV), but with very low circulating supply, leaving minimal upside in the secondary market. Subsequent token unlocks lead to significant and ongoing selling pressure.
3. Shift in investment logic: The market begins to scrutinize protocols with stricter "enterprise valuation" logic, focusing on actual revenue, user retention, and token rights, rather than just narratives and hype.
The market in 2026 will show extreme "K-shaped divergence": a few core assets like Bitcoin may continue to rise driven by institutional funds, for example, Tether has bought another 8888.88 BTC, a number reflecting hope for the new year. Major players like Bitcoin have MicroStrategy and other institutions, Ethereum has BIT, while most altcoins lacking fundamentals and poor tokenomics may continue to bleed, be delisted from exchanges, or even go to zero!
From Conflux's failed reverse merger listing and being suspended by HKEX, to Sun Yuchen's repeated jumps in the TUSD reserve misappropriation case, each "absurd" event is a mirror reflecting the chaos, contradictions, and temptations in the Web3 industry amid rapid development.
In the current market environment, it’s best to observe quietly as a spectator. It’s rare to have the boss come out for an online sharing session. Everyone should absorb the knowledge in the live room and wait for the market to exit turbulence. Just like before every bull run, community leaders catch the turning point and lead us to position for targeted gains!

On December 31, 2025, when the UK and France stock markets close early, and Japan, Korea, and Germany markets exit, the US stock market alone takes the lead in the global year-end battle but opens high and then declines under the drag of tech stocks. Yesterday’s market fluctuations are a microcosm of the year's trend—short-term volatility cannot hide the long-term trend. Some celebrate at the peak, others fade away.
The three major US stock indices opened slightly higher and then turned lower. The 2025 US stock year-end performance shows that after the turbulence in April, the S&P 500 gained 16.39% for the year; the Nasdaq barely held a 20.36% annual increase, continuing over 20% for three consecutive years. The Dow rose 12.97% for the year. Among individual stocks, Tesla fell over 1%, Facebook nearly 1%.
The market turnaround on the closing day started with an unexpected employment report. Initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, the lowest since late November, demonstrating labor market resilience and instantly dispelling hopes of three Fed rate cuts in November. After the data release, US Treasury prices plummeted, with the 10-year yield rising 5 basis points to 4.17%, and the 2-year yield also rising to 3.47%, forming a "double whammy" of stock and bond declines.
The US dollar rebounded against this chaos, rising to a one-week high, but its decline of over 9% this year, the largest since 2017, was already set. The offshore RMB, however, surged, breaking through 6.98 intraday, hitting a 15-month high, up 3623 points for the year, completely reversing three years of decline.
SOL: Continuous ETF net inflows have not sustained price increases. On-chain small coins are beginning to show wealth effects, but these are localized. Once the market stabilizes and moves in tandem, support is at 122, resistance at 127.
Yesterday’s market showed a pattern of initial rise followed by weakening. Bitcoin dropped from an intraday high of 89,400, falling to 87,900 before finding short-term support and rebounding during the day. In the evening, after US stocks opened, selling pressure increased, and the market declined again, with a low of 87,766.
Ethereum moved in tandem with Bitcoin, falling from a high of 3,027 to a low of 2,956 in the evening. Precise market rhythm strategies suggest shorting at the high of 89,000 during the rebound, successfully capturing nearly 1,500 points.
BTC: The daily Bollinger Bands remain flat and narrowing, with reduced volatility. After a bullish breakout above the middle band yesterday, it quickly turned bearish and retested the lower band, continuing the oscillation pattern. The price retreated to previous lows without a clear break, and breaking the short-term oscillation requires volume support. The monthly chart shows a break below the middle band at year-end, highlighting overall weakness, with further bearish potential. The 1-hour low points are gradually rising, but bearish momentum is waning. However, rebound volume is insufficient, MACD is below zero and flat, and KDJ is near 50 with downward turns, indicating short-term highs are decreasing. Resistance at 88,000 and 89,655; support at 86,500.
ETH: Daily resistance at 3,085; support at 2,835.
Intraday trading plan: mainly high short positions.

Afternoon strategy:
BTC: 88,046-88,978 short, target: 87,341/86,800, stop loss: 89,600.
ETH: 2,985-3,030 short, target: 2,939-2,900, stop loss: 3,120.
(2026: Live up to the trend, keep pace, manage positions well! Strive to be a perennial winner!)