#美联储回购协议计划 ETH 1-Hour Price Evolution: Technicals, On-Chain Signals, and Market Sentiment Triangular Flood

Everyone, the current Ethereum trend is worth careful analysis. On the 1-hour chart, ETH just broke below the key support at 2980 and pierced the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (2975 line). The current price is hovering around 2968. This is not just a correction but a clear sign of short-term structural weakening.

**How to interpret the technicals**

The price has entered the lower band seeking a bottom, with focus shifting to the strong support at 2894 (a previous low coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band). MACD is oscillating below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum. However, there's a detail that cannot be ignored—trading volume is only 349.5K, below the estimated 369K, suggesting selling pressure exists but has not intensified. In other words, the downward momentum isn't fierce enough yet, and we should watch out for a rebound after exhaustion of selling power. The 2920-2894 zone is the next line of defense—who holds it will have the final say.

**What do on-chain data tell us**

Interestingly, large addresses still hold significant ETH positions, showing signs of accumulation at the bottom. Exchange net outflows have only slightly increased, indicating "smart money" is not panicking and selling off. In the derivatives market, funding rates have returned to neutral or slightly negative, easing bearish sentiment. This objectively reduces the risk of long squeezes—it's not that the bears are aggressive, but they are releasing pressure.

**Macro rhythm and sentiment**

In the absence of new catalysts, the market has entered a purely technical correction mode. Overall volatility of crypto assets is declining, and Ethereum is mostly just moving sideways with Bitcoin, lacking the momentum for a breakout. It’s like a large ship rocking in huge waves but not yet capsizing.

**My rhythm judgment**

In the next 6-12 hours, I lean towards bearishness. The key is whether 2920-2894 can hold. If a 1-hour long lower shadow or a volume-driven bullish engulfing candle appears here, it will be a golden entry point for a short-term rebound—such patterns often indicate a bottoming process.

But to be clear: this is not a trend-level bear market but a shakeout during an upward trend. The market is clearing out weak hands and shaking off less committed longs. Position management is crucial. Those not yet in should stay calm and wait for signs of stabilization at support before entering; those already holding should not panic unless a significant drop below 2894 with a 1-hour close below occurs. Otherwise, stay patient.

The market will ultimately reward patient and disciplined participants. I am ready, waiting for a confirmed signal of the true shift between bulls and bears.

$ETH