Talking with friends about the AI bubble and SoftBank's ending, I actually think there's no need to be too pessimistic. OpenAI, as a super app that reached 1 billion users even faster, when it comes to critical moments, cutting expenses to turn a profit isn't really difficult, and it probably won't fall easily.

Looking at investment through this lens, the logic is quite similar to playing Texas Hold'em poker. For players like Masayoshi Son, winning or losing in the middle isn't even the most important thing; the core ability is actually "continuous buying" — as long as you can keep raising funds and keep the money on the table, there's a chance to turn things around. In a sense, as long as a fund can keep raising money, it's a strong fund. After all, in the context of the massive dollar liquidity, the overall pool is expanding.

But the biggest counterexample to this logic now might be domestic dollar VC funds. The previous approach of crazy fundraising and throwing money around—can it still work in the current environment? Once the market falls into deflation, having raised too much money might now become a burden. Has the game rule changed? We probably won't see the final answer until another five or six years.