2025-12-26 15:20:57

The gold market in 2025 is fierce, with gains already exceeding 70%, far outperforming the S&P 500 and continuously hitting new all-time highs. The logic behind this rally is quite straightforward: expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global instability, and central banks around the world疯狂囤金—three drivers working together.

Just looking at central banks reveals how outrageous this is. In the first three quarters, global central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold, with countries like China, India, and Turkey increasing their gold reserves—clearly betting on de-dollarization. Coupled with the global risk aversion triggered by Trump's tariff policies, and escalating geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, India, and Pakistan, funds are flowing steadily into the gold market.

Interestingly, the gold-silver ratio has approached 60 for the first time since 2013. The bizarre phenomenon of silver plummeting while gold remains resilient has led the market to ponder whether the "silver bull" story is losing steam. But from another perspective, this could also trigger a catch-up rally for gold.

The Federal Reserve has cut rates consecutively in September and October, and market expectations suggest another roughly 60 basis points cut in 2026. This accommodative environment is bullish for precious metals. Institutions like Goldman Sachs are optimistic about gold reaching $4,900, with bullish targets even more aggressive, pointing to $5,000 or $5,200.

However, risks are also brewing. China's new tax policies might suppress jewelry demand, and consumption in India shows signs of easing. If the Fed isn't as dovish as expected, gold prices could cool off easily. At the current pace, a correction is likely in the second half of 2026.

For holders of cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH, the logic of gold allocation is actually the same—both are safe-haven assets. It is recommended to allocate 5%-10% of your overall portfolio to gold. As for silver, its volatility is too fierce, making it less suitable for long-term holding; swing trading remains a more reliable approach.

BTC6.95%

ETH8.44%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MissedAirdropBro

· 2025-12-29 00:00

The central bank's move to hoard gold is quite clear; the de-dollarization trend is really strong. Gold at 5000 yuan is not surprising, but I'm worried the correction might come too quickly. Silver has been a bit tough this round; the ratio can't be maintained anymore. Allocating 5%-10% in gold is a reliable suggestion; after all, the logic is the same as with BTC—it's a safe haven. In the second half of 2026, it will depend on the Fed's stance; whether they remain dovish or not will directly determine the fate of gold prices.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-9f682d4c

· 2025-12-28 16:55

The central bank is疯狂囤金, is this wave of de-dollarization really coming? Gold at $5000? I believe it, but we also need to watch out for the pullback in the second half of 2026. Silver is indeed crazy, but gold remains stable, let's allocate 5%. Betting on central banks is not wrong, but Trump's tariff policy is truly exceptional. Gold-silver ratio at 60? There's no courage left to buy silver. We crypto enthusiasts actually think the same as gold bulls, we're all betting on safe-haven assets.

View OriginalReply0

MidnightTrader

· 2025-12-27 09:39

The central bank is frantically stockpiling gold. Is de-dollarization really about to happen? Gold has surged by 70%, which is incredible, but I still think the 5000 yuan target is a bit exaggerated. The gold-silver ratio at 60 is interesting. How did silver drop so much... Last year, I said to pair it with gold, and now I really regret not acting sooner. Are the hedging logic of BTC and gold the same? That's ridiculous, they are completely different. A correction in the second half of 2026? I'll have to buy the dip again by then...

View OriginalReply0

ForkTrooper

· 2025-12-26 16:32

The central bank is疯狂囤金, which is a declaration of war on the dollar. Gold at $5000? Dream on, the risks have been brewing for a while. Allocating 5%-10% in gold, I buy into this logic. The gold-silver ratio is 60, silver has really surged. Wait for the correction in the second half of 2026, that will be the time to bottom fish. If the Federal Reserve isn't so dovish, gold will cool off in minutes. De-dollarization, gold is indeed the best chip. I'm optimistic about $4900, but don't be greedy, brother.

View OriginalReply0

SeeYouInFourYears

· 2025-12-26 15:51

The central bank is hoarding gold aggressively, clearly betting against the US dollar. Gold has reached new highs, but silver has plummeted, and the difference is quite significant. The target of over 5000 is a bit aggressive, but the risks are indeed not small. There is a real need to watch out for a correction in the second half of 2026. A 5-10% allocation to gold is still very necessary. If the Federal Reserve suddenly adopts a hawkish stance, gold prices could cool off in minutes. Consumption in India is loosening, and this detail is worth paying close attention to. The gold-silver ratio approaching 60 is indeed a bit outrageous. Hoarding gold is playing the big game of de-dollarization. Swing trading in silver is the correct strategy; don’t hold on stubbornly.

View OriginalReply0

BlindBoxVictim

· 2025-12-26 15:50

The central bank is frantically accumulating gold, now I really can't understand it anymore The gold-silver ratio approaching 60? What's going on with silver, just let it lie flat? $5000 USD? Just listen, don't really believe it A correction in the second half of 2026, is it too late to get in now? I also have some hedging in gold for safety, but not that much White silver swing trading is correct, holding on tightly really doesn't work Betting on de-dollarization, central banks of various countries actually have some ideas The Federal Reserve is so dovish, only then can gold prices hold up, otherwise it's really dangerous The demand for jewelry is suppressed, I hadn't thought of this angle, China's recent policies do have an impact Goldman Sachs' predictions are just for reference, don't take them seriously

View OriginalReply0

CryptoSurvivor

· 2025-12-26 15:42

The central bank is frantically stockpiling gold, this is the clarion call for de-dollarization. $5000 per ounce of gold? Dream on, the risks have long been embedded. Silver really can't compete with gold this time; the gold-silver ratio of 60 is unbeatable. The Federal Reserve can't stay dovish for too long; they will flip next year. I'll stick to a 5%-10% allocation; greed never ends well.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHunter007

· 2025-12-26 15:33

The central bank is疯狂囤金, this is a signal, de-dollarization has become inevitable. Is $5000 for gold not a dream? The problem is I have no money left. Gold-silver ratio is 60? Silver has indeed been outrageous this wave, feels like I've been harvested. The Federal Reserve is so dovish, BTC should also take off, why is it still stepping? A 5%-10% gold allocation is a good suggestion, but it's really hard to implement in practice. A correction in the second half of 2026? Then we shouldn't chase highs now, feeling conflicted. De-dollarization, India and Turkey are both playing, it seems it's not a joke.

View OriginalReply0

OnchainFortuneTeller

· 2025-12-26 15:25

The central bank is疯狂囤金, this signal is too obvious --- Gold-silver ratio approaching 60? Silver really can't be pushed up anymore --- $5000? Dreaming or really coming --- Decoupling from the US dollar is a big move, gold is the best chip --- A pullback in the second half of 2026? I bet it comes early --- BTC paired with gold is the right way, risk diversification must be done this way --- The tariff move is out, the whole world is抢金子 --- Silver swing trading is feasible, long-term holding is really exhausting --- India's consumption loosening? Then there's a problem --- $5200 bulls, what are you thinking? Is it too early for the Fed to turn hawkish

View OriginalReply0

GweiWatcher

· 2025-12-26 15:23

The central bank is疯狂囤金, it seems everyone is betting on de-dollarization. Gold at $5000 is not a dream, but we really need to watch out for a pullback in the second half of the year. Silver has been惨了 this time, it's better to play short-term. A 5%-10% gold allocation is indeed稳, BTC and gold are similar. The gold-silver ratio逼60 is too outrageous, this data needs to be carefully analyzed. Risks are暗涌, if the Federal Reserve isn't that dovish, gold could easily翻车. The big trend of de-dollarization, no wonder central banks have been吸金.

View OriginalReply0