Can the key level of 2900 for ETH hold? I don't see the signals on the 1-hour chart as very optimistic.

Everyone, what we need to focus on now is this level - 2900. The rebound of ETH feels like there are pitfalls everywhere. It's clear on the 1-hour K-line chart: the price is firmly held below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and each rebound peak is lower than the last, showing a standard downward channel trend. Now stuck at this level of 2933, it can't even break through the previous low of 2940, and the so-called golden cross on the MACD looks very weak, feeling like it's struggling in its final moments.
I think the signals on the technical side are very clear:
- Structurally, the highs are gradually moving down, and the arrangement of the bears is perfectly complete.
- The MACD shows a weak golden cross below the zero line, with a significant decrease in trading volume. The rebound is a window for the main force to escape.
- From a positional perspective, 2940 is a short-term line of life and death. Once the support at 2900 below is breached with volume, the downside space is likely to directly point to the range of 2800 to 2850.
On-chain data here is also an alert.
I looked at the monitoring data on the chain, and the net inflow of ETH to centralized exchanges has increased by about 15% in the past 24 hours. What's more interesting is that whale addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH have recently been making small transfers continuously, which is usually a way to distribute chips in a boiling frog manner.
In the perpetual contract market, the open positions did not show a significant increase during the rebound, indicating that the confidence of the bulls is actually lacking, and leveraged funds are also hesitant to truly bet on a reversal.
What about the macro and news? They are all leaning towards bearish.
The Federal Reserve's stance on "maintaining high interest rates for longer" has not changed, which means that all risk assets are under pressure, and cryptocurrencies find it hard to be immune. Additionally, the SEC has not made any substantial progress on the approval of spot ETFs, leaving the market lacking decent catalysts; the so-called "fundamental support" is basically just an illusion.
My actual operational thinking
To be honest, I will see any short-term rebound of ETH as an opportunity to short. Below 2940 is the main territory for bears. My plan is to gradually place short positions in the range of 2935 to 2940, with a stop-loss set above 2960. Once 2900 is truly confirmed to be lost (1-hour closing price below 2895), I will increase my position, initially targeting 2850, and in extreme cases, even testing 2800.
Trading is actually a game of probability. Right now, the technical analysis, on-chain data, and news all point towards a bearish trend. Don't be misled by those sporadic rebounds; remember that the trend is your most reliable friend. If you haven't entered the market yet, the rebounds present the best shorting opportunities. Catching knives in a downtrend? Sooner or later, your hands will bleed.
I swear on my trading record that I've got this downturn under control. $ETH