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There is a particularly interesting phenomenon in the crypto world - the more complex the trading system, the faster it dies, while the seemingly stupid rules can accompany you for a long time.
I clearly remember that winter of 2018. At three o'clock in the morning, staring at the remaining 3000 yuan on my phone, I smashed it. This wasn't the first time; in half a year, I had already lost 280,000 yuan - all my savings from five years of work plus the "startup capital" borrowed from my parents were gone. During that time, I felt like I was possessed, staring at the daily charts until dawn, and the fluctuations on the K-line made my heart race.
Seven years have passed, and I am no longer that gambler. Last month, my account appreciated by 23%. This number may not sound like much, but it is stable and replicable. What has supported me to this day are those bloody lessons from back then.
**Why was I once so easily losing money?**
At first, I contracted a disease called "treasure hunting addiction." A certain influencer in the community casually mentioned a "potential coin," and I rushed in without even finishing the white paper; I heard that a certain coin was going to be listed on a major exchange, and even when the K-line was dead as could be, I was still fantasizing about bottom fishing for an explosion. And what was the result? Those coins that couldn't make it into the top 50 of the rising list were like rotten cabbage in a corner of the market—looking cheap, but in reality, not a single cent of new funds came in.
It took me two whole years to understand: cheap does not equal opportunity; someone buying is the opportunity.
**Turning Point: From "Treasure Hunting" to "Following the Trend"**
The change occurred in 2020. I established a rule that seemed very simplistic - only selecting coins from the top gainers list within the recent 11 days, but excluding those that have declined for more than three consecutive days.
This sounds very boring, right? There's no story of "hundredfold coins", no hidden opportunities. But the logic of this rule is solid: being able to break into this list at least indicates that institutions, retail investors, and people are buying. The market heat is real, and the flow of funds is visible.
In the second half of last year, I focused on trading ETH for a simple reason – it stayed in the top ten of the gainers list for three consecutive weeks. It wasn't because I believed in Ethereum's technical prospects, nor was it because I predicted how many dollars it would reach, but purely because the data was there. At that time, many people were still looking in corners for those "undervalued small coins", while I had already followed the flow of funds to achieve a 23% monthly increase.
**Why is this method effective?**
First of all, it's simple. Simple means that execution bias is not likely to occur. I don't need to look at fifty technical indicators or analyze the macro economy, just one thing: ranking on the list + judgment of decline.
Secondly, it is quantified. There is no ambiguous space, no room for self-persuasion. Either it meets the standards or it does not. This prevents me from falling into the past trap of thinking "it seems like there is an opportunity" and going all in.
In the end, it follows the market. The rise rankings essentially reflect the most active areas of the market. You go there not to gamble, but to follow the real flow of funds.
**Why should three consecutive days of decline be excluded?**
This is what I have summarized after two years. If a coin has fallen for three consecutive days without rebounding, it often indicates that buying pressure has disappeared. The "cheap" at this time is definitely a trap. On the other hand, a coin that has the ability to rebound in the short term at least shows that there are still people defending the bottom.
**Frankly speaking**
I won't tell you how fast this method can make money. Because a growth rate of 23% per month, multiplied by a long enough time, will turn into real wealth. I also won't say that there is no luck involved. The crypto world is like this; even the most perfect rules will encounter black swans.
But I will tell you, I have never lost 280,000 again. Because I learned not to go treasure hunting. I learned to trust the market's popularity rankings, to believe in those assets that have capital attention, and to trust the power of simple rules.
Perhaps this is not the most profitable method, but it is the one I can stick to the longest. And in the crypto world, living long often means winning.