Will the US stock market crash in 2026? The dual crisis of fear of missing out (FOMO) and bubbles.

To be honest, the US stock market is likely to be on a roller coaster next year. On one hand, the AI wave is heating up, with companies and funds pouring in, fearing they might miss out on opportunities worth hundreds of billions. On the other hand? Valuations have skyrocketed to ridiculous levels, while earnings growth can't keep up with the pace, and this gap will need to be filled sooner or later. The kind of dramatic drop followed by an immediate rebound that we saw last year will become increasingly common, so your heart needs to be tough.

Where is the problem? The commercialization of AI indeed has broad prospects, and the capital flow in the industrial chain is booming, which may trigger a surge in the short term. But the key risk is right in front of us: can corporate profits withstand these high valuations? What if the Federal Reserve tightens its policy and withdraws liquidity? That would lead to a significant correction, even replaying the script of the internet bubble—today's prosperity of AI might turn into a plunge next year. Data has already raised warning signals, with the volatility driven by AI causing the S&P 500 to touch the 10% correction zone multiple times in 2025, and in 2026, it could escalate to a bear market signal of 20%+ at any moment.

There is also Trump's tariff war, along with the potential bursting of the AI bubble. These "insidious catalysts" could trigger a total collapse at any time.

Conversely, many big shots on Wall Street are still betting on the continuation of the bull market. Although the gains may not be as crazy as in 2025, the release of AI profits combined with the potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can still support the indices. The S&P 500 reaching 6000 points is not a dream, and the momentum for tech stocks remains strong. It's just that the logic of returns has shifted from speculation to actual efficiency improvements.

The key here is differentiation. AI winners take all, and companies that can't keep up will be eliminated. Emerging market stocks can hedge against volatility because they rely on real profit growth, not on AI hype, providing a buffer. There are even views suggesting that being bullish doesn't necessarily require betting on AI; sectors like efficiency stocks can also yield profits.

To be honest, emotions and liquidity will dominate the market in 2026. Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment. The real survival skill is: strictly control the position size, only pursue high-quality stocks that are guaranteed to be profitable, use a phased approach to enter and exit + dynamically adjust to avoid traps. In the long term, AI presents huge opportunities, and directions like $BTC and tech stocks are worth paying attention to. However, the short-term fluctuations are quite fierce; those who survive until the bull market arrive will be the real winners.