#大户持仓动态 Market Observation Weekly Journal

**The Capital Game Between the Stock Market and the Cryptocurrency Market**

Today, the Nikkei index opened high and rose, driving a surge in $BTC, but the result is quite interesting—Bitcoin only consumed one large bullish candle before stagnating. What does this imply? The strength of the bulls is actually still relatively weak, and currently, a more oscillating pattern is dominating.

The logic behind it is clear: part of the funds is flowing into precious metals. Gold and silver have reached new historical highs, while platinum has surged even more, directly breaking the highs since 2008 and surpassing 2000 USD. Clearly, risk appetite is selectively cooling.

**Extreme Opposition of Bull and Bear Camps**

Currently, the market views are highly polarized. On the bullish side, some leading whales and well-known analysts still insist that $BTC can return to $100,000, and logically, there is still plenty of room for growth. However, on the other side, whales are continuously increasing their short positions in contracts, with positions exceeding $100 million. These large players and some KOLs believe that the market has fully entered a bear market, and the upward potential is not as significant.

This deadlock situation is precisely the breeding ground for volatility.

**Breakouts and Traps in Technical Analysis**

The small fluctuations over the weekend changed the structure of the market—the trendline of the downward channel has been broken. Theoretically, this is a bullish signal, but the problem is: the upward momentum is indeed limited. Following the rhythm of the past two weeks, it has basically been a cycle of weekend consolidation and downward movement on Monday, so it is hard to say whether the trendline break can hold.

What's even more heartbreaking is that the box consolidation has lasted too long, and the probability of a false breakout (coming back down after a fake breakout) is increasing. This morning, there was a false breakout, which makes it easier for the bulls to exhaust their strength.

**Trading opportunities are here**

If given another chance to test the support level of 8400, I would dare to go long. If I go long this time, $BTC might fluctuate around 9300, which would be a good volatility for short-term trading. Moreover, even if the market does go bearish, it doesn't mean it will plunge directly back to twenty or thirty thousand dollars; there will still be plenty of volatility in between to participate.

**Intraday Strategy Reference**

$BTC: Short near 89500-904 (narrow loss), Long in batches at 855-844 (narrow loss)

$ETH: Short at 3060-3090 (stop loss set at 3120), Long around 2800

These strategies follow a left-side trading approach, so the logic is relatively aggressive. When executing, the entry timing must be flexibly adjusted according to real-time market changes.