#大户持仓动态 The 3-day U.S. government shutdown has just ended, and it looks like another one is coming at the end of January? Trump recently signaled that the budget deadline is on January 30, and if you calculate it, there’s just over a month left from now.

To put it bluntly, the last temporary funding bill only extinguished the fire; it did not resolve any of the real contradictions. The Democrats insist on extending health insurance subsidies, otherwise, the premiums for 22 million Americans will double; the Republicans are determined to control the budget. Neither side wants to back down, and the Democrats were heavily criticized by voters for their last compromise, so the pressure is even greater this time. The Republican bill is still 60 votes short, making it difficult to break the negotiation deadlock in the short term.

The problem is that the U.S. economy itself is a bit weak—GDP growth is only 1.4%, inflation is 3.1%, and with a 4.6% unemployment rate, the flavor of stagflation is already present. Really going to shut down? Historically, a 35-day shutdown directly resulted in a loss of 11 billion dollars, of which 3 billion can never be recovered. The last time it caused 40 airports to become paralyzed and ports to be filled with goods that no one managed.

It's not a small matter for us investors either. The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest point in 9 years, and if a government shutdown occurs, the volatility of US stocks and bonds will become extremely intense, and this fluctuation will ultimately affect the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Friends engaged in cross-border trade need to be careful; last time the shutdown directly stalled the approval process for import and export licenses, and this time the China-US trade process is likely to be impacted as well.

This matter is more noteworthy for the crypto space. Historically, after the last shutdown ended, the crypto market rebounded by over 10%-15%, but the uncertainty this time is higher. Some funds may first run to buy safe assets like government bonds to hedge, while others are optimistic about the opportunity and prepare to bottom fish in high-risk coins. How $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB perform will depend on whether Congress ultimately compromises or really shuts down.

Ultimately, this is the result of the two parties in the United States using people's livelihoods and the economy as chips to play political games. What do you think, will they make concessions at the last moment? Will this shutdown really trigger global financial turmoil? Should the crypto circle hedge first, or wait for an opportunity to strike?