ETH/NASDAQ ratio signals bottom? Market opportunities behind whale accounts with $78.3 million unrealized loss

【BlockBeats】On-chain data shows that an institutional account holding large amounts of crypto assets recently published market analysis: The ratio of Ethereum to the Nasdaq 100 index has repeatedly bottomed near 0.11, a level that coincides with the oversold area where RSI approaches 30, suggesting ETH may already be in a bottoming range.

From a mean reversion perspective, Ethereum and the Nasdaq are highly correlated, and large deviations are unlikely to persist. This institution expects the probability of ETH outperforming the Nasdaq in the coming months to increase, with a target ratio set between 0.16 and 0.22, which means roughly a 50%-100% upside potential.

The macro environment also supports this judgment—potential policies such as the US restarting quantitative easing, direct cash stimulus to households, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission promoting on-chain US stocks are creating more imagination space for on-chain assets.

Interestingly, the weekly RSI of BTC/Nasdaq has already become severely oversold, with RSI dropping below 30, signaling that Bitcoin may soon enter a strong rally.

However, it should be noted that this account, which holds a total position of $694 million, is currently in a less optimistic state—after adding to ETH and SOL long positions yesterday to average down, the market continued to decline, and the total unrealized loss has now reached $78.3 million, with only $15.92 million in margin remaining. Specifically:

ETH position: 5x leverage long, position size $573 million, average price $3,147, unrealized loss $66.77 million (-58%), liquidation price $2,150.

BTC position: 5x leverage long, position size $85.18 million, average price $91,500, unrealized loss $6.32 million (-37%).

SOL position: 20x leverage long, position size $31.57 million, average price $135, unrealized loss $5.21 million (-292%)—this loss ratio indicates their timing for adding to SOL was somewhat awkward.

This institution’s trading history is also quite notable; their past trading timings have often been highly synchronized with US policy movements, even placing $500 million in shorts hours before a major dip, later realizing nearly $100 million in profit. Now, they are heavily betting on a rebound, but the account pressure is indeed increasing. From a technical perspective, opportunities exist, but based on the position data, risks are also significant.