#美联储降息 Recently, this wave of the market has been quite interesting! What tricks are the whales playing? Head and shoulders top or head and shoulders bottom? Let's analyze together to see if it can become a reality.

ETH has been repeatedly testing the midline around 3050 on the daily chart this weekend. After breaking down in the 4-hour 5-wave pattern, it recouped the midline, currently entering a small rebound phase of the daily 2-wave. The likely future scenario is a decline into the 3-wave, with the rate hike expectations approaching, which indeed increases the probability of this downward move.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, aligned with the daily 2-wave rebound, ETH might form the 3rd or 5th wave of the rebound—how it unfolds depends entirely on the market’s sentiment. Key levels to watch are whether it can hold above 3170 as resistance, and the minor support at 3070 should not be ignored. From a time perspective, give it a 2-3 day observation window.

On the daily chart, after the 5-wave rebound is completed, there’s an 80% chance it will enter a decline in the 3rd or 5th wave. The latter half of this week might see a high point, followed by a downward move driven by rate hike shocks. Resistance levels above are 3250-3350, and support levels below are in the 2750-2850 range.

From a weekly perspective, it’s even more interesting—ETH has failed to stay above the 60-week moving average for three consecutive weeks, increasing the likelihood of a double bottom decline. The key supports are at 2850 as a trend support and 2750 as a critical support, essentially indicating a standard 2-wave retracement on the weekly. The bottom is expected around next week, with market reactions post-rate hike being crucial. The previous low of 2620 must hold.

Don’t forget! On the 19th, US stocks, US bond futures, and options are all quarter-end settlement days. Coupled with rate hike expectations, volatility will be high. Be cautious when trading.