December 13 Early Morning ETH Forecast and Analysis

ETH previously surged to 3446.12 before quickly pulling back, with a low of 3041.10. Currently stabilizing at 3091.35, a short-term oversold rebound technical bottom has formed, and the downward momentum has shown clear signs of exhaustion at low levels. On the daily chart, the pattern indicates a “stabilization after sharp decline with a doji star,” while the hourly chart shows a bullish engulfing reversal signal, suggesting that buying interest is starting to enter at low levels. The probability of a short-term rebound is higher than continued decline. During the decline, trading volume gradually decreased, but during the stabilization phase, volume slightly increased, consistent with the volume-price logic of “end of decline, rebound initiation.”

The 3040 level is the lower boundary of the previous volatile platform and also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support of this upward trend, providing relatively strong technical support with a low chance of breaking below. The previous sharp decline was driven by panic selling without substantial negative news, and after the panic subsides, the market will revert to fundamentals. The institutional holdings of ETH and the Layer2 ecosystem development have not undergone fundamental changes, providing a basis for a rebound. The hourly RSI has dipped into oversold territory (below 30) and turned upward, while the MACD green histogram has shortened and formed a potential bullish crossover, all indicating the possibility of a short-term rebound.

During the rebound, focus should be on the 3180 - 3200 zone, which is the consolidation platform from the previous decline and may have trapped sellers. If resistance is encountered in this zone, a light short position can be tried. If the price unexpectedly breaks below the 3040 support level, stop-loss on long positions and lightly pursue short positions, targeting 2980 - 3000. However, the technical probability of this scenario is low, and it should only be considered an extreme case.

Recommendations: Light long positions around 3060-3075 with stop-loss below 3040, and targets at 3150-3180-3200. If the price rebounds to the 3180 - 3200 zone, try a small short position with a stop-loss at 3220, targeting around 3120.
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