2025-12-11 11:40:40

#美联储降息 The moment when good news is realized is just the beginning of cutting leeks. Powell's interest rate cut yesterday was as scheduled, and he also signaled a super dovish stance. The market then staged a classic drama: promising employment risks, hinting at continued easing, yet $BTC and $ETH couldn't keep rising. BTC surged then fell back; ETH plummeted from a high of $3447. Risk assets all jumped together in a synchronized dive.

This time, Powell abandoned ambiguous forward guidance and changed his tune to say that from now on, data will be the primary basis—"data dependence mode" is now activated. The initial jobless claims data to be released tonight at 21:30 US time expects 220,000 claims, marking the first battle of the new era. Everyone is waiting for this number because it will determine who holds the narrative for the entire upcoming month.

Market divergence is now outrageously wide:

If initial claims come in at 220,000 or lower—especially significantly below expectations—that indicates the employment market isn’t as fragile as imagined. Powell’s dovish arguments will no longer hold water, the door to rate cuts will close tight, and "tightening trades" will re-emerge, causing risk assets to be hammered even harder.

Conversely, if initial claims exceed 220,000—especially well above expectations—that signals worsening employment is a done deal, providing ammunition for the Fed to continue large rate cuts. Risk assets might rebound—how much they rebound depends on whether this data exceeds expectations.

Honestly, the current market has been overextended almost to the limit. From a technical perspective, the real squeeze play has just begun. Any rebound caused by weak employment data could be a golden opportunity for bears to add positions, and also the last chance for bulls to slip away.

Tonight’s 21:30 initial claims figure will determine whether the "recession trade" fully launches or the "tightening trade" regains control. For the crypto market, this data tonight could influence the trend for at least a month.

BTC-4.02%

ETH-4.69%

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ForumMiningMaster

· 2025-12-14 04:10

Powell's tricks are top-notch, bullish news dumps the market, rate cuts lead to declines—truly impressive. Let's wait for the 21:30 unemployment data; the crypto market can go up or down overnight, it's a disaster. Another harvest, are the old hand investors ready to be cut again? The liquidation battle has already begun; tonight is the last chance for the bulls to unload. Talking with data? Powell just bluffs; anyway, whether they cut or not, there's always a reason. Those entering now are cannon fodder; I'll wait for the rebound before making any moves. You think the 220,000 unemployment data sounds good? I bet they'll fake it; anyway, the bulls are getting hammered regardless.

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NFTArchaeologis

· 2025-12-13 16:39

Data has become the new "prophecy," which is a bit ironic. Yesterday's interest rate release was like an ancient harvest sacrifice; it seemed prosperous but was actually turbulent beneath the surface. The figure of 220,000 is more like a touchstone of market confidence than just economic data.

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WenMoon42

· 2025-12-13 09:40

Another show of cutting leeks, dovish calls for bullishness but instead plunging, the套路深啊. --- Initial jobless claims data is the life and death line tonight, can't escape. --- Talking about data dependence, isn't it just based on mood? Anyway, in the end, it's the leeks losing out. --- The number released at 9:30 directly determines our life and death over the past month, really exciting. --- The overstretch is almost done, it feels like giving the last wave of cuts. --- Is the slaughter war just beginning? Then we must hold on even more, a rebound is an opportunity to escape. --- Recession or tightening, it’s absurd to judge life and death based on one unemployment data.

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AirdropChaser

· 2025-12-11 12:10

Dovish signals can't save you either, this round of cutting losses is really brutal. --- It's the same old story, good news is bad news, bad news is good news. --- Waiting for tonight's initial jobless claims data, otherwise today will be a waste. --- Overextending, overextending, overextending—every day is overextending. When will it ever rise again? --- Basically, it's the last escape window for the bulls. If this rebound can be escaped, do it. --- Recession or tightening, this night in the crypto world will reveal it all. Do you gamble or not? --- The annihilation battle is coming, the bears have been itching to move for a while. --- ETH dropped from 3447, really no hesitation at all.

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GasFeeWhisperer

· 2025-12-11 12:02

Powell's move was brilliant; when positive news is exhausted, it turns negative—classic cut strategy.

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ProposalDetective

· 2025-12-11 12:01

It's the same old trick, good news is exhausted and becomes bad news, I'm tired of it. The signals for a rate cut are so strong but can't even move the market, what does that mean? It means the institutions have already run away. Tonight's data is really crucial, but I bet five bucks that no matter what happens, it's just an excuse to smash the market. Powell relies on data dependency, in other words, he's leaving himself a backup plan, he's scared. Initial jobless claims below expectations—bad news, rate hike expectations return; above expectations—good news? Fat chance, recession trades get hammered even harder. This is what Schrodinger's opportunity looks like. People in the crypto world are so naive, they really think dollar liquidity is a savior, but what’s the result? The balance sheet reduction is always looming like a sword. Bulls need to wake up, this rebound is either a honey pot for bears or the last escape pod. The market has no more surprises left, all that's left is who flees first wins.

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GasFeeCrier

· 2025-12-11 11:44

Are you trying to shake us out again? Where are the promised positive signals? --- I've seen this trick from Powell many times—signals of easing one after another, but the crypto still falls... --- That data at 9:30, if it really turns out well, then we’re really caught in a trap. --- One number can determine a month’s trend. I just want to see how many times I can be fooled. --- Don’t believe in any dovish good news; a rebound is just a chance to escape. --- The market is so overextended, who dares to chase the high? Only a fool. --- Waiting for the initial jobless claims data, but I bet five bucks I’ll still get crushed. --- Talking about data dependence, actually it’s just to leave a way out for oneself. Quite interesting. --- A gift for the bears, a final ultimatum for the bulls, and what about the retail investors caught in the middle?

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