BTC broke 100,000 dollars, ETH stood at 4,000! Behind this wave of market, traders around the world are staring at tonight's "split drama".

The Fed is going to cut interest rates, which is basically a certainty. But what really makes people panic is not whether it will fall, but what the sentence says after the cut - the market calls this "hawkish interest rate cut". To put it simply: the money is for you, but don't expect to have it next time.

How much is the internal tear? **
Now the Fed is divided into two factions, arguing fiercely. One faction looks at the employment data is not good-looking, and feels that water must be released to save the economy; the other faction is staring at inflation data (core PCE is still at 2.8%), insisting that no matter how loose it is, it will not be able to suppress prices. What's even more outrageous is that because of the government shutdown, a bunch of key data is not available at all, which is equivalent to driving with your eyes closed.

**Three things tonight, each of which can smash the plate**

Let's look at how Powell speaks first. Every word in the post-meeting statement has to be broken open - Goldman Sachs predicts that the wording may be tight, implying that "the threshold for the next rate cut is higher." As long as Powell mentions "looking at the data to decide" a few more times, the market's expectations for continuous interest rate cuts will be directly reduced by half.

Let's look at the dot plot and the voting results. This chart shows the expectations of various officials for future interest rates, and this year it is estimated that another round will have to be torn apart: some people want to cut it by 50 basis points (such as Governor Milan), and some people are firmly opposed to it (the Schmid in Kansas City will definitely vote against it). Doves are hawkish and full of gunpowder.

Finally, there is a secret trick - the balance sheet. The balance sheet reduction has stopped in October, and tonight it may directly announce the resumption of bond purchases (of course, it will not admit that it is QE). If this trick comes out, global liquidity will immediately loosen.

What will happen to the crypto market? **
This resolution is like an "option delivery day" at the macro level, which may force three trends:

The first type: hawkish interest rate cuts are cashed out. Lowered, but the words were very tight. BTC may rush in the short term, and then start to fluctuate violently, don't think about the trend market.

The second type: unexpected pigeon. If it is clearly stated that it will be loosened in the future, on-chain funds may return, and ETH may take off.

The third type: directly do not surrender or super eagle. Then prepare to see the blood flow into a river, and all the risk assets dive together.

Tonight is destined to be unpeaceful, hold your breath and wait for Powell to speak.