As we are now less than 24 hours away from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, Bitcoin is still fluctuating within the same range. Remember, this is the one macro event that will determine whether we break through this resistance and rally to $100,000, or hit new lows around the $75,000 area. Essentially, Powell is about to either pump your “altcoins” or have you eating instant noodles for the next two months.

I always tell people that the uncertainty doesn’t come from the rate cut itself being a surprise, but from tomorrow’s dot plot and Powell’s press conference, which will be the true surprise factors. The rate cut is just the boring part—the real fun begins when Powell starts speaking.

The market is currently pricing in about an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, so the cut itself is clearly priced in. The real market movement will come from forward guidance, the new dot plot distribution (how many members expect more rate cuts next year), and the tone Powell uses when asked about future monetary policy and data dependency during the press conference.

The dot plot is so important here because this is the last FOMC meeting for 2025, and we’re about to get the Fed’s final collective outlook for 2026. If the median only signals 1-2 rate cuts, that means rates will stay high through 2026, keeping the dollar strong and likely sending Bitcoin to new lows (abandon all hope). But if the median leans toward 3-4 rate cuts, then you can expect a breakout past the $93,000 resistance.

Finally, this meeting is unusually tricky because there’s a lack of consensus within the Fed (as we’ve seen in previous dot plots and various members’ differing statements), and decisions are being made without the latest macro data. So yes, your longs are currently being decided by a group of economists who can’t agree with each other. Good luck! $GT $BTC $ETH