On December 7, 2025, the crypto market experienced severe turbulence. Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below $89,000 during trading, major asset trading volumes were "halved," and approximately 100,000 traders were liquidated across the network, with total liquidations amounting to about $111 million. The core driver of this volatility was the market’s heightened anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set for December 9-10, with the probability of a December rate cut rising to around 87%.

Today's Trend: Tug-of-War in Volatility
Today (December 8), the market continued its recovery, but sentiment remained cautious. Major asset prices generally rose, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $91,000 and Ethereum similarly breaking above $3,100. However, overall market sentiment has not fully shifted to optimism—the Fear & Greed Index remains at 22, in the "mild fear" zone, indicating that investors are staying alert ahead of the Fed’s impending decision.

Policy and News: The Fed’s Decision Is the Biggest Variable
Market sentiment is almost entirely shaped by expectations for the Fed’s December 9-10 policy meeting. A 25 basis point rate cut remains the dominant scenario priced in, and investors are inclined to anticipate further policy easing in early 2026. These expectations have suppressed the US dollar and maintained interest in defensive assets like gold, while risk markets fluctuate within a narrow range as they await clearer guidance.

Additionally, regulatory progress in the stablecoin sector has provided long-term confidence to the market. The US "GENIUS Act" passed in the Senate, and Hong Kong, the UK, and others have also launched stablecoin regulatory frameworks. This signals stablecoins moving from a gray area into a legally regulated domain, helping consolidate the US dollar’s role in the global monetary system.

Potential Market Outlook for Today
In summary, today’s market may present the following scenarios:
- Range-bound consolidation: Ahead of the Fed’s decision, the market may continue to fluctuate around $91,000, awaiting clearer signals.
- Narrow fluctuations: As trading volumes have not fully recovered, market liquidity may remain limited, resulting in small price swings.
- Potential breakout: If sentiment further improves, Bitcoin may test the $92,000-$95,000 resistance zone, but a breakout will require strong buying support.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in an 18-month-long "cup and handle" consolidation pattern, and recent pullbacks are considered normal corrections. However, market probabilities suggest that the chance of Bitcoin falling back toward the previous low of $82,000 (57%) is still higher than the probability of rebounding to break above $100,000 (28.8%).

Summary
After yesterday’s extreme volatility, today’s crypto market is exhibiting a "rebound after pressure" consolidation pattern. Sentiment continues to be driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the Fear & Greed Index remains low, highlighting continued investor caution. Although Bitcoin’s price has recovered somewhat, there is still strong resistance above, and today’s trend will largely depend on market sentiment and capital flows ahead of the Fed meeting. Barring unexpected news, the market may continue to consolidate around $91,000, awaiting next week’s key decision. #十二月行情展望 #加密市场回暖 #比特币行情观察