#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Looked through BTC's monthly-level pullback data from the past few years and found some interesting patterns.

A healthy pullback in a bull market usually falls within the 30%-40% range. If it’s really turning bearish, it tends to crash right through 50%. Right now, we’re down 36% from the top, which honestly is still within the safe boundary. The more crucial factor is time—the normal adjustment cycle starts at three months, and we're only halfway through that.

So, for the next month or so, there’s a high probability we'll keep consolidating, with the main battleground repeatedly tugging between $75,000 and $88,000. If the rate cut lands in December and we break out, that’s ideal. If not, it’s fine too—we might dip below $80,000 again at most, just have to tough it out a bit longer.

But you have to take the long view—rate cuts are already on the agenda, it’s just a matter of when. The easing next year will only be stronger than this year, and market reactions will be even more intense. That previous high at $126,000? I don’t think that’ll be the end. If things move quickly, Q1; if slower, Q2. Either way, there should be a decent rally.

Worst case, even if I’m wrong and we really are entering a bear market, history says after three months of continuous drops there should at least be a technical rebound, right? It’d be a shame not to catch that kind of opportunity.

$BTC $ETH $BNB