After the release of the latest US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data #ETH , the market instantly fell into chaos. The new jobs added were 119,000, a seemingly stable figure, but the unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%—the highest level since 2021. On one hand, the economy is not collapsing, while on the other hand, the job market is cooling; this contradictory signal has led everyone to start recalculating the possibility of an interest rate cut in December.

The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have almost been put on the table. The probability of interest rate cuts has been like a roller coaster, plummeting from nearly 70% to 30%, and then repeatedly bouncing back and forth in the hours following the data release. Even more interesting is that the Japanese government suddenly announced a 21 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, ready to hit the gas; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve across the ocean is still hesitating on whether to hit the brakes. The rhythm of global central banks has been completely disrupted.