Recent trend observation: Bearish sentiment is rising, key levels are being sorted out.

Market Status Scan: Bullish Pressure is Apparent

Recent on-chain data from the last hour shows that the long liquidation volume is significantly higher than that of shorts, reaching a disparity of about 39 times. This asymmetric liquidation ratio often signals that the chasing funds in a one-sided market are facing concentrated liquidation. From the distribution of positions on the exchange, the short-selling ratio is on the rise—taking dYdX as an example, about 75% of the active positions on that platform have shifted towards the short direction.

ETH is currently trading around 2910. Notably, there is a significant accumulation of stop-loss orders for early bulls in the range of 2925-2940, which may become a natural resistance for a short-term rebound. In terms of market structure, there is layered pressure above, while support below is relatively weak.

Operational strategy reference: the logic chain of shorting at highs

If you tend to short ETH, you can pay attention to the following price ranges:
- Activation entry zone: 2925-2940 (previous liquidation concentration area, rebound may face resistance)
- Stable Entry Zone: 2905-2915 (near the current price, capturing the pullback after a short-term rebound)
- Stop-loss reference line: 2955 (If the price breaks through this level, it indicates that the bulls have regained control, and one should exit in a timely manner)
- Target observation level: 2850 (the core expected price level for the bearish camp, as well as the previous support conversion position)

Several technical details supporting this line of thinking: the hourly MACD indicator has been continuously in a bearish arrangement, and the RSI has been oscillating in the oversold range but lacks significant rebound momentum. Regarding on-chain capital flow, some whale addresses have recently shown signs of reducing their holdings, and the net inflow of ETH to exchanges is also increasing, which typically indicates that selling pressure is accumulating.

Risk Control and Rational Suggestions

The opportunity lies in: the current price structure indeed provides a relatively favorable risk-reward ratio for shorting, with a target space of about 60 dollars at 2850, while keeping the stop-loss distance within 45 dollars. If positions are added when the price rebounds to the resistance zone, the cost can theoretically be further optimized.

But the risks are also real:
First, strictly implementing stop-loss is the foundation of survival. Once the price breaks 2955, you must immediately recognize the mistake and exit to avoid being swept by the bullish reversal.
Secondly, leverage use should be restrained. It is recommended to keep contract leverage within the range of 3-5 times; excessively high leverage will only amplify emotional fluctuations and the risk of liquidation.
Finally, be cautious of over-trading. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and frequent transactions can easily erode profits due to fees and slippage.

The market is always seeking balance between bulls and bears. When data points in a certain direction, it is reasonable to go with the trend, but the premise is to manage risks effectively. The essence of trading is not to gamble on a certain direction but to control risks under a probability advantage; only by surviving can one have the opportunity to accumulate profits.