Can ETH still go up? On-chain data and fundamentals give you the answer

Current Situation: ETH in a Dilemma

ETH is now over $2,750, still 40% below its all-time high of $4,800. Recently, some people asked me, “Is ETH still worth buying?” My answer is: Yes, but it depends on how you view this cycle.

5 Reasons Why ETH Can Still Rise

1. Token Economics Are Working

After switching to POS, ETH’s supply dynamics have fundamentally changed:

• Fee burning: Each transaction reduces supply (especially when the network is busy)
• Staking lock-up: Over 30 million ETH are locked in validators, greatly reducing liquidity

Combined, these factors artificially create “scarcity.” History proves that reduced supply + stable demand = upward price pressure.

2. Real Growth in Ecosystem Users

Unlike some coins that survive on hype, ETH’s core is real economic activity:

• DeFi protocols process over $10 billion in daily transactions
• Layer2s (Arbitrum/Optimism) already support millions of users
• RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) is starting to enter at scale

All this means the demand for ETH is hard demand, not just air.

3. Institutional Entry Changed the Game

After ETH ETF approval, pension funds and asset managers began allocating ETH. This means:

• The nature of capital shifts from “retail speculation” to “institutional allocation”
• The buying logic shifts from “technical analysis” to “fundamentals”
• The holding period shifts from “months” to “years”

Institutional money flows in slowly, but flows out even slower. This is the foundation of a bull market.

4. Layer2 Solved the Biggest Pain Point

The main problem with ETH in 2021 was outrageous transaction fees. Now:

• A transaction on Arbitrum costs only $0.01
• Optimism has over 1 million daily active users
• Base (by Coinbase) is also exploding

Improved usability = user growth = ecosystem expansion = increased ETH demand. This logic is solid.

5. Real World Asset Tokenization Is Still Early

The global bond market is worth $130 trillion, real estate $300 trillion. If just 1% of these assets move on-chain to Ethereum, what happens?

It means ETH’s value as “infrastructure” will be repriced. It’s still in the experimental stage now, but in a few years?

Historical Data Supports This View

• 2015-2017: $1 → $1,400 (ICO boom)
• 2018-2021: DeFi explosion, $100 → $4,800 (NFT boom)
• 2022-2024: Correction + PoS switch, bottom $900 → now $2,750

Each cycle’s rise matches real ecosystem development, not something out of thin air. Now, with RWA, institutional allocation, and Layer2 maturity, these factors are even stronger.

When Will It Rise?

Professional forecasts generally point to a clear upward move in the next 2-3 years:

• Pectra upgrade brings network efficiency improvements
• RWA projects gradually move from experiments to production
• US stock market bull run spills over into crypto

Conservative target: $5,000-$8,000
Aggressive target: $12,000+

Risks Can’t Be Ignored

• Regulatory clampdowns (especially in the US)
• Macroeconomic recession dragging down risk assets
• Layer2 security vulnerabilities (low probability but high impact)
• Competing chains (Solana/Ton) making unexpected breakthroughs

How to Get In?

1. Dollar-cost averaging is the safest way (smooths out volatility)
2. Position sizing: Crypto exposure should not exceed 5-10% of total assets
3. Think across cycles: Don’t look at daily charts, focus on monthly/quarterly charts
4. Offline storage: Those who truly believe should lock up for the long term

Bottom Line Judgment

From a fundamentals perspective, ETH absolutely has reasons to rise, but “when it will rise” and “how much” are full of uncertainty.

If you are a long-term allocator (3+ years), the current $2,700-3,000 range is reasonable.

If you want to double your money in the short term, it’s better to wait patiently and don’t chase highs.