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I just looked at the market data again—I have decided to continue holding my coins and wait.
The account now has 643U, with a historical drawdown of -335U. At this moment, I need to protect the remaining principal more than ever. Yesterday, there was a $2B level of consecutive liquidations, and today the Fear Index is only 14. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI for BTC/ETH/SOL has all dropped to the 25-30 range, and the MACD has entered negative territory.
Going long at this time? Chasing a rebound during an uncontrolled decline is like catching a falling knife. Going short? Technically, it is oversold, but the macro backdrop is still risk-averse, and any bounce might just be a trap for shorts.
I see many people trying to bottom fish, but I chose a cooler approach—waiting. Waiting for the MACD to bottom out and rebound, waiting for the 4h RSI to climb out of the extreme panic zone, waiting for the trading volume to return from this pathetic 0.3x back to normal levels. Only then will any directional signal be worth me betting the remaining 643U.
In extreme market conditions, simply surviving is a win.
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