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Most alts are not recommended for long term holding.
By this time next year, 80% of alts will go to zero. It's not a halving, nor a 90% drop, but a complete delisting and disappearance. There are still 883 days until the next Bitcoin halving, and we are at the freezing point of the halving cycle. Looking back, at the end of 2013, 2017, and 2021, this period corresponds to the bottom of the bear market. This time is even worse - with ETF funds supporting BTC and ETH, most alts do not have this, which means that this bear market may be deeper for alts than ever before.
A few years ago, it was the project parties that took the lead—from financing, listing to the secondary market, operating in one go. Later, it became dominated by market makers, and the status of project parties declined. This year, it has become even more thorough, as platforms have connected the primary and secondary markets, turning project parties into supporting roles. Without funds and lacking motivation to maintain the ecosystem, the current market has become a pure race to the finish.
Recently, some altcoin project teams have been dumping coins at low prices, willing to clear out packages at 60% or even 40% off. Just think about it, when the project teams actively liquidate, what reason do they have to maintain the secondary market coin price? Now, market-making institutions are buying up the circulating supply, combined with contract hedging mechanisms to short, the entire altcoin sector is being systematically liquidated.
In the future, only two types will survive: mainstream coins with ETFs and tokens deeply bound to platforms. This year, all the popular coins and projects are closely related to platforms. In the future, the blockchain will become more centralized—whether it's farming, playing with NFTs, or trading alts, as long as one deviates from the platform ecosystem, the outcome is almost certain to be a loss or exit.
After the short squeeze market in November and December, next year's altcoins in the market will soon be a mess. I'm not bearish, just want to remind you: the vast majority of alts should not be held long term. The current market is not the wild era of ten years ago. Look less at recommendations, indulge less in fantasies, and preserving your principal is the biggest victory. #加密市场观察