Is there a sudden change in the crypto world? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting hides secrets, and Ethereum is unlikely to break 3000? On-chain data reveals the harsh truth.

The Fed's June FOMC Meeting is entering the countdown, a meeting referred to as the "financial barometer" by the crypto world, which is affecting the nerves of every investor. In addition to the highly anticipated interest rate cut decision, the interest rate dot plot to be released at this meeting is even more crucial—serving as an intuitive guide to the Fed's future interest rate policy, its appearance can trigger significant market fluctuations. Remember on December 18th last year, the dot plot hinted at a slowdown in interest rate cuts, causing Bitcoin to plummet from $110,000 to $92,000 in a single day, a drop of over 15%, which demonstrates its influence.

Regarding the outcome of this meeting, my judgment is very clear: there is absolutely no possibility of a rate cut in June, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level in July is also 100%. If the market expects the meeting to release a signal for a rate cut in July, it will likely return disappointed, and this expectation gap may constitute a short-term negative. The biggest uncertainty lies in whether there will be a rate cut in September and the number of rate cuts for the whole year, which directly determines the overall direction of the crypto world. The answer will be revealed in next week's dot plot. Currently, Wall Street's expectations for a rate cut in September are fifty-fifty, but in conjunction with the inflation trends in the United States, I believe the dot plot is more likely to suggest a pause in rate cuts in September, which will undoubtedly put considerable pressure on the market.

The rebound in inflation is the core reason hindering interest rate cuts. Many Wall Street analysts predict that the U.S. inflation rate will rise from the current 2% range to 4% or even 5%, making the likelihood of achieving interest rate cuts by the end of the year extremely low. Behind this, the price increases triggered by Trump's tariff policy are gradually being transmitted to the consumer side and will continue to ferment, which will not only lead to a decline in corporate revenue and pressure on U.S. stock valuations but also make it difficult for the crypto world, which is highly correlated with U.S. stocks, to maintain its own integrity.

From the market trends, risk signals have already emerged. The Bitcoin whale Spoofy has continuously reduced its holdings during the recent upward trend, selling a total of 30,000 bitcoins, worth up to $3 billion. The claim that "institutions are accumulating at the high of $110,000" is evidently untenable—rational institutions would never abandon the low of $70,000 to buy in at a high. Currently, most of those still entering the market are retail investors driven by FOMO sentiment, becoming the ones to take over the positions from institutions. On-chain data also issues a warning: the profit and loss ratio of long-term holders is nearing a phase peak, which has historically often been a signal for a top; the current K-line shows characteristics of high-level distribution, with multiple top formations beginning to appear, marking a window period for exiting to avoid risk, and a deep correction is likely to follow.

Bitcoin has risen 60% from the bottom, but the macro environment lacks sustainable positive support, and instead, bearish factors continue to accumulate. At this time, chasing highs is akin to picking up chestnuts from the fire. It's better to patiently wait for one or two months, as there is a high probability of a good opportunity to buy at the bottom. In terms of short-term operations, $110,000 constitutes a strong resistance level, and the price is expected to pull back to around $106,700 and then rebound. Aggressive investors can set up long positions at this level; conservative investors are advised to enter above the stronger support level of $104,000. Currently, my short position plan is to take profit around $106,800. Congratulations to those who have followed along with the operations.

In addition to Bitcoin, ZK tokens are also worth paying attention to as shorting targets, which have recently encountered additional bearish news. The token was originally scheduled to have a large unlock of 20% of its circulating supply on June 18, but the latest allocation plan shows that starting in July, an additional 167 million tokens will be unlocked each month, which is equivalent to 4% of the current circulating supply, and this unlocking pace will continue, which will suppress the coin price in the long term. In the past two weeks, we have repeatedly positioned short positions around $0.058, and took advantage of its rebound yesterday to increase our holdings again. We have now realized considerable profits, and relevant real-time operations will continue to be updated.

On-chain data has revealed a strange phenomenon: the inventory of Bitcoin exchanges has declined vertically, with a large number of tokens being bought and transferred out of exchanges, and the buying pressure far exceeds expectations. However, what is puzzling is that such strong buying pressure has not led to a significant increase in coin prices, which confirms the judgment of financial pioneer Wyckoff—"efforts without results" is a typical signal of market weakness. The reason for this is that the buying behavior of traditional financial institutions is being offset by the high-level distribution by crypto world whales, and the reduction in holdings by whales like Spoofy has led to a continuous depletion of buying power.

The situation with Ethereum is also not optimistic. Although the coin price has surpassed $2800, the on-chain data has not shown any new buying interest, and the market is exhibiting unusual calmness. This indicates that the current rise lacks follow-through momentum, making the risk of chasing highs extremely high. Additionally, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the one-year inflation expectations data, which will be released at 10 PM this Friday, need to be closely monitored. These data points can not only help us predict the direction of next Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting but also intuitively reflect the current state of employment and inflation in the United States, providing important information for assessing recession risks. I will also provide updates on related interpretations.

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