Future trend prediction and scenario analysis

Short-term (next few hours) most likely development path:

Scenario 1 (Higher Probability): Breakout to the upside, triggering a short squeeze.

The price has successfully broken through the resistance zone of 115,400 - 115,600.

Once the breakout occurs, the liquidation map above will start to take effect, and a large number of short positions being liquidated will drive the price to rise rapidly, targeting the 116,300** to **118,000 area.

This is a high-risk, high-reward sprint phase, and the market will be very rapid and intense.

Scenario 2 (Need to be cautious): Quick pullback after a false breakout

The price has attempted multiple times to break through the resistance zone of 115,400 - 115,600 but has not succeeded, forming a "false breakout."

Due to the recent significant price increase and high leverage, once the upward momentum weakens, bulls will take profits, leading to a rapid price decline.

The first target for the pullback is the support zone of 114,000 - 114,200. If this support is broken, it may trigger a deeper correction to test the stronger support level at $113,300.

3. Key Positions and Operational Recommendations

Key Long Positions:

Attack signal: Volume stabilizes above $115,600.

Support baseline: $114,000. If it breaks below, the short-term bullish trend may pause and needs to be reassessed.

Key positions for shorting:

Bearish signal: A significant bearish candlestick pattern (such as long upper shadow, bearish engulfing, etc.) appears below $115,600.

Support line: $116,300. Once this level is breached, bears will face immense pressure.

Your suggestion:

Do not blindly chase higher prices: The current price is in a strong resistance area, and the risk-reward ratio is not favorable for chasing higher prices.

Wait for a key breakout confirmation: If you want to go long, a more prudent strategy is to wait for the price to confirm a valid breakout above 115,600 and then look for opportunities after it pulls back and stabilizes. Alternatively, consider waiting for the price to drop to around the support level of 114,000 and look for signs of stabilization before making a decision.

Strict risk management: In this environment, volatility is extremely high, so it's crucial to set proper stop-loss orders. Whether you are in a long or short position, there must be a clear stop-loss plan. For example, a long position's stop-loss can be set below $114,000.

Pay attention to higher time frames: these are short-term indicators, so also monitor the trends of the 1-hour and 4-hour charts to ensure that the short-term trading direction aligns with the larger trend.

Summary:

The market is currently in a state of being on the verge of an explosion. In the face of strong bullish momentum, there is significant bearish leverage and overhead resistance. The most likely outcome is that the market will digest this situation through extreme volatility—either breaking upwards or washing out downwards. Please fasten your seatbelts and manage your risks.