Price forecast for Pi: can a supply shortage lead to a breakthrough above $0.37?

The price of Pi Coin is trading today around $0.344, slightly down after failing to hold above $0.35. The token continues to fluctuate near the lower boundary of the consolidation range, while buyers are defending the support zone of $0.33. Meanwhile, the supply dynamics are changing as the Pi Network reduces the base mining rate, adding a fundamental level to the ongoing technical struggle.

On the 4-hour chart, Pi Coin is trading below the key moving averages: the 20-day EMA at $0.349 and the 200-day EMA at $0.375 create multi-level resistance. A broader descending trendline that began in July is holding back the rise, indicating persistent selling pressure.

Support remains concentrated in the range of $0.33–$0.34, where multiple bounces have prevented deeper breaks. However, if Pi Coin does not overcome the range of $0.37–$0.38, the upward momentum is likely to remain limited.

Momentum indicators are showing a neutral or bearish trend. The RSI is currently at 42, signaling a weakening strength, while the MACD has flatlined after a brief attempt to move into positive territory. This suggests that the consolidation may continue unless a new catalyst emerges.

A decrease in production rates leads to a supply shortage.
This month, the fundamental dynamics are in focus. The Pi Network announced a reduction in the base mining rate by 1.23%, lowering it to 0.0027405 π per hour from 0.0027746 in August. This means that mining 1 Pi Coin now takes more than 15 days, and without bonuses, only about 24 Pi are generated per year.

This gradual decline reflects a long-term model of network deficit. As mining rewards continue to decrease, the growth of circulating supply will further slow down, which theoretically could contribute to an increase in value as demand strengthens.

Market analysts view this tightening as an optimistic backdrop, but warn that the actual impact will depend on its adoption by users and the liquidity of the external exchange once Pi becomes more widely traded.

Additional technical data supports a cautious outlook. The Supertrend indicator is at $0.362, signaling a bearish trend as long as the price remains below it. Similarly, the Parabolic SAR points are above the spot levels of $0.34–$0.35, highlighting the current pressure from above.

For bulls, a return to the range of $0.36–$0.37 is critically important for reversing the structure towards a bullish impulse. Failure here will trap the token in a broader downward trend.

Technical price forecast for Pi coin
The nearest roadmap for Pi Coin is tied to the support level of $0.33. Holding above this zone maintains the potential for a rebound, while a decisive break below this level risks increasing losses to $0.31.

On the other hand, overcoming the $0.37 mark will open the way to $0.40, while the next hurdle around $0.42 will correspond to the descending trend line. A breakthrough above $0.42 could finally shift the medium-term structure towards the upside, with a target level of $0.45–$0.47.