#Will Crypto Market Break Out in September?

- The price of Bitcoin is recovering above $110,000, but moderate capital flows may lead to an extension of the consolidation process.

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable strength indicators after recovering above $110,000 on Tuesday, as traders look for macroeconomic support ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in September.

- Market Overview: Investors are looking for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as a lifeline.
Federal Reserve officials will closely monitor key inflation indicators, including the unemployment rate on Friday, the Producer Price Index on September 10, and the Consumer Price Index and unemployment claims on September 11, when assessing the U.S. economic situation ahead of the interest rate decision on September 17.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there is an 89.8% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, which could be a lifeline for riskier asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies and stocks.

Attached is the Fedwatch tool diagram.

- Spotlight Data: Bitcoin Faces Moderate Capital Flows
Bitcoin is facing varying market conditions, ranging from partial to total, which continue to shape its future prospects. For example, the weekly market value of stablecoins has decreased to around 1.1 billion dollars, widening the gap between growth waves that ranged from 4 to 8 billion dollars that drove its rise in 2024.

This slowdown indicates that although the net capital inflow into the system continues, the pace of growth has slowed. From a liquidity perspective, this situation undermines the support for the continued rapid rise in Bitcoin's price, according to a recent report by CryptoQuant.

Attached is the market value chart for stablecoins.

Historically, the growth of the market capitalization of stablecoins has coincided with the rapid rise in the price of Bitcoin. This expansion reflects the influx of new capital into the cryptocurrency ecosystem, supporting the increasing demand for crypto assets.

Today's Plan: Bitcoin maintains its short-term bullish outlook.
The price of Bitcoin settled above $110,000 at the time of writing this report on Tuesday, as optimists shift their focus towards breaking the (EMA) 100-day exponential moving average at $110,697. The path of least resistance is gradually trending upwards, supported by optimism regarding what could be the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. A buy signal from the (MACD) moving average convergence divergence indicator supports the bullish outlook. If traders increase their investments expecting a steady recovery in Bitcoin's price, the reversal towards the resistance level at $118,510, which was last tested on August 10, will gain momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at level 43 reinforces the bullish trend as it bounces back towards the midpoint. Demand for Bitcoin is expected to increase in line with the recovery of the Relative Strength Index, supporting the upward trend.

Attached is the daily chart for the BTC/USDT pair.

However, Bitcoin is facing a situation of macroeconomic uncertainty, especially with the impact of upcoming key inflation indicators on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Therefore, it is essential to monitor critical support levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at $104,165, and the psychological round number zone at $100,000. If Bitcoin's decline accelerates, these levels may represent opportunities for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) before the next recovery attempt.