1) Snapshot allocation

• Team: 22% – unlocked 22%
• Private round: 15% – 15% unlocked
• Advisors: 1% – has unlocked 1%
• Liquidity Bootstrapping: 7% – unlocked 7%
• Ecosystem Fund ( Allocated ): 9% – has unlocked 9%
• Liquidity Incentives: 37% – unlock schedule not yet clear
• Ecosystem Fund (Unallocated): 9% – unlock schedule not clear

=> A total of ~54% has been fully unlocked (22+15+9+7+1). The remaining 46% mainly consists of Liquidity Incentives (37%) and Ecosystem Fund not yet allocated (9%).

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2) Meaning & Impact

Positive points
1. The unlock pressure from the team/investors has basically occurred early – the risk of future "cliff unlock" is lower than ( unless they still have a large amount that is not in circulation due to other internal locks ).
2. 37% for Liquidity Incentives → has long-term ammunition to pull TVL, encourage cash flow & liquidity, strengthen Pendle's market position in the yield tokenization sector.
3. 18% for the ecosystem (9% allocated + 9% unallocated) → room to fund new products, multi-chain integration, marketing, grants – if used wisely, it will be a growth catalyst.

A concerning point
1. High concentration of ownership in the top group (Team + Private + Advisors = 38%) and has been unlocked → risk of net selling when the market is bad. Need to monitor large on-chain wallets.
2. Future inflation from Liquidity Incentives 37% – if emissions occur faster than the growth rate of fees/revenue, prices may come under pressure. You need to know the actual emission rate (linear, diminishing, halving, ve-model…).
3. Ecosystem Fund (Unallocated) 9% – depending on usage (airdrop, market sell to fund the fund, OTC, veToken) will have different impacts on supply – lack of transparency in vesting schedule = risk.
4. Yield cycle: Pendle benefits when the base APY (LST, LRT, RWA T-bill, points farming) is high. If the overall yield contracts, volume & fees may decrease.

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3) Growth Scenario

Bull case
• Emission decreases gradually / has a locking mechanism (vePENDLE, vote escrow) → circulating supply increases slowly.
• TVL, Volume, Revenue fees increase > emission rate → P/S, P/TVL compress.
• Strong expansion into RWA yield, LRT/restaking, points market, multi-chain (L2, new chain ).
• Buyback/fee share for stakers reduces float.

Base case
• Linear emission, moderate selling pressure; TVL is still increasing but slowly → sideways price, dependent on the overall market cycle (LSDfi/restaking).

Bear case
• Quick release incentives, low staking ratio, revenue not keeping up → dilution.
• Compete with other yield tokenization protocols ( + reduced fees when the overall yield decreases.

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4) The indicators you should monitor regularly
1. The actual emission rate of 37% Liquidity Incentives )token/week, % inflation year(.
2. Circulating supply & Staking/lock ratio )how much PENDLE is locked ve/LP(.
3. TVL, Volume, Fees/Revenue of the protocol ) compared QoQ / MoM (.
4. PENDLE emissions vs. protocol revenue )is the revenue enough to "buy back" the amount of emissions?(.
5. Whale/Team wallet movements )on-chain(.
6. The quantity & scale of the new pool )RWA, LRT, LSD, points( – the more diverse, the more sustainable the cash flow.
7. Value mechanism for tokens: buyback, fee share, veToken voting bribes, gauge wars…