Market analysis for the evening of the 30th at 10:50 and the layout for the interest rate meeting.

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The four-hour chart has formed a triangular convergence pattern, and we need to pay attention to the breakout situation on both the upper and lower sides. On the upper side, we focus on the breakout around 3850-3900. On the lower side, we pay attention to the support level at 3700.

The layout of the interest rate meeting at two o'clock in the morning.

The interest rate hike is a low-probability event, almost impossible.

If interest rates rise, the cryptocurrency market will crash.

At that time, we can short at market price with targets of 3500 -300 -3000.

The points for those who want to lay out a long position but haven't entered in time are the same.

Second interest rate cut ) low probability event (

If it occurs, the market price will chase higher, and the crypto market will surge. At that time, we will focus on the breakthrough of the 4000 round number level to reach a new high. If you want to position for a short, pay attention to the resistance at the 4000 round number level and the resistance near the previous high. These areas can be considered for layout, and the third remains unchanged ) high probability event (.

Remain unchanged, then there will be three more meetings, the probability of interest rate cuts will increase, openly negative for the crypto market, but secretly positive.

The market will experience a slight decline before rebounding. ) in conjunction with Powell's speech (.

How to layout

If it remains unchanged, we will first focus on the support situation of the four-hour triangle convergence. We can plan long positions around 3500-3700 below. If the meeting and speech cannot break 3500, a short-term bottom will form, and in the future, it will consolidate around 3500 before attempting to break above 4000. For the upper side, short positions will be mainly short-term, with a key focus on the breakthrough of 3850-3900, and then the previous high of 3945. Finally, pay attention to the breakthrough of the 4000 round number.

Current analysis of the BTC market

Bitcoin is currently still in a sideways movement on the daily chart, with no clear direction. The trading strategy remains to sell high and buy low. We should focus on the breakout at the 121000 level above, and pay attention to the support in the range of 14500-115500 below.

The layout thinking of the monetary policy meeting

The first interest rate hike has a ) very small probability, almost impossible (.

If it occurs, the market price chase for short positions should focus on the support levels in the range of 1110-112000, followed by the support in the range of 1000-106000. Similarly, for those wanting to position long orders, attention should be paid to the entry points in these two ranges.

The second rate cut ) has a low probability (.

If interest rates are cut, it will be beneficial for the cryptocurrency market. At that time, we can directly buy at market price, which will allow Bitcoin to break through the daily level range. We will first focus on the breakthrough of the historical high, and after the breakthrough, we will observe the sentiment of the institutions.

The third option is to keep the interest rate unchanged.

If the interest rate remains unchanged, the surface will be bearish for the market, but underlying it will be bullish. At that time, Bitcoin will first drop slightly and then rally. Therefore, we need to focus on whether the upper and lower wicks can break out of the consolidation range, as the long-term outlook is bullish for Bitcoin. We will pay attention to the upward breakout; after breaking the level, we can follow the trend and chase long positions with a stop-loss principle of 800-1000 points near ). Secondly, we will focus on the breakthrough of historical highs. For those looking to gamble on short positions, small stop-losses can be around the historical high.