Ethereum Price Analysis: Fundamental and Technical Interpretation

In the past week, Ethereum has achieved a weekly increase of 26.4%, breaking through the $2800 resistance level and approaching the $4000 mark. Does this indicate the start of a new bull market for Ethereum? This article analyzes Ethereum’s recent performance and future trends from both fundamental and technical perspectives.

Fundamental Analysis

1. Main Upgrade Plan

Ethereum plans to launch several important upgrades in the coming years:

• Launch optimization of the verification mechanism in the second half of 2025, lowering the staking threshold to 16 Ether or even 1 Ether, and introducing light node verification.
• Launch a cross-chain liquidity integration project by the end of 2025, breaking down barriers between the mainnet and Layer 2 networks.
• Reshape the Ethereum virtual machine using RISC-V architecture in phases between 2025 and 2030 to enhance performance.
• Introduce zkEVM technology on the mainnet in 2025-2026 to optimize block execution efficiency.

These upgrades are expected to significantly improve the performance and economic model of Ethereum, but so far, they have not had a substantial impact on the price.

2. ETF Position Information

Since the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF in July 2024, institutional holdings have steadily increased:

• Institutional holders of US spot ETFs hold approximately 5.038 million ETH.
• BlackRock holds 2.461 million units, with a net purchase of 2.458 million units this year.
• Fidelity and Grayscale follow, but investor behavior varies.

The concentration of institutional holdings is high, and BlackRock plays the role of a “stabilizer,” with its investment decisions indirectly defining the market’s medium to long-term expectations for Ether.

3. DeFi Ecosystem Analysis

The current main sources of income in the Ethereum ecosystem are still concentrated on:

• Staking/LST related protocols: Lido, Rocket Pool, etc.
• Decentralized Lending: Aave, Compound, Morpho Blue
• DEX: Uniswap, Curve, Balancer
• Re-staking/MEV: EigenLayer
• Stablecoins: MakerDAO, Liquity
• RWA Protocol: Ondo Finance, Maple Finance, etc.

Established DeFi projects may achieve higher gains during the rise of ETH, but they require higher demands from retail investors. In contrast, ETH itself has higher certainty and liquidity.

Technical Analysis

1. Floating Profit Chip Ratio

As of July 18, 2025, the proportion of floating profit chips for ETH has reached 95%, approaching historical highs. This usually indicates that short-term trading sentiment is overheated and may face adjustments. However, considering other factors, there are no signs of systemic risk yet.

2. Changes in Bitcoin Blockchain Structure

Bitcoin has recently exhibited the following characteristics:

• The total realized profit reached 4.3 billion USD, surpassing the previous peak.
• Long-term holders are beginning to release their chips.
• The price has not shown any significant pullback, indicating the resilience of buying pressure.

Bitcoin has formed a “high-level support strength”, continuously accumulating chips during fluctuations, creating a uniform price support range. This structure is conducive to the continuation of the long-term trend and also provides indirect support for mainstream assets such as Ether.

In summary, although there are adjustment risks in the short term, ETH still has a foundation for upward movement in the medium to long term. Investors need to closely monitor changes in fundamentals and technical indicators to grasp market rhythm.