July 12-13 Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis [Bitcoin Weekly Analysis]

The price indicators are lagging and are for reference only; specific needs should refer to the market data.

【Flatbread】
Bitcoin Monthly Line (Figure One and Two): We haven't talked about the monthly line for nearly half a year. The top of the 109500 phase mentioned at the end of 2024 has also been verified. As I said before, 2025 is going to be a bull market. Although at the beginning of the year, there was a deep correction, many bearish voices emerged. Now, their silence is the best proof.

First, let's look at Figure 1. In 2024, Bitcoin experienced the first wave of the main upward trend, and during the second wave's correction, it returned to fill the key position of the previous bear market at 618. From this point, Bitcoin and its healthy trend entered the second phase of the bull market. As for the target for the year, I still see it unchanged at 130,000-140,000. This is something I mentioned last year. How it will move afterwards, we need to pay attention to the two trends in Figure 2. The first trend suggests a double top ending this bull market, where Bitcoin will hover around the top, giving altcoins time to take off. At that time, it will become clear who is the leader and who is the last train. However, we need to watch out for the second trend (the yellow line), where Bitcoin starts at 48,000 and moves through five waves. The yellow line represents the last wave, which is considered the most standard wave shape. However, the number of waves can vary greatly among individuals. We just need to understand the two likely trends at the top.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart (Figure 3 and Figure 4): As for Bitcoin, one of the trends I previously observed is as follows, along with its standard bottoming pattern to retrace near the boundary line of 93500, which is also one of the reasons for giving up on long positions. However, at present, Bitcoin has not shown this trend, which is enough to indicate that in the deep market data, the liquidity for buying has been discouraged, that is, the downward movement at 7.1 coincided with the re-emergence of tariffs, and more than half of the people expect a retracement. In this case, there is no significant movement; at least LC is pushing the price up, aiming to break through the rising line of 110000 with a large volume and price synchronization. The volume here is a sell's stop loss, not the so-called main force's intervention. Market makers are only responsible for clearing liquidity, not for intervening in prices to make a profit.

After discussing the previous situation, let's look at the current weekly chart. Bitcoin has formed a zigzag adjustment wave pattern in the range of 5.20-6.20, specifically a 123 wave structure. Additionally, when the third wave crossed the bottom of the first wave, it quickly closed above. I refer to this as lc's downward stop loss. At the end of June, it challenged 110000 with a strong bullish engulfing pattern, and the key turning point lies in the candlestick at the beginning of July. The vast majority of people gave up their positions in this range, allowing lc to gain a chip advantage and drive the price upward (the smaller the liquidity for buy, the easier it is for the price to rise).

At the beginning of this week, Bitcoin dipped but did not break below the trendline of the previous zigzag adjustment, confirming the conditions for the main upward wave on the weekly chart. In unknown areas like the one above, we use extension lines to determine the most probable endpoints of this main upward wave, which are 121000, 128000, and 135000.

Then you need to pay attention to Bitcoin's closing on Monday; it must not close below 111000. Otherwise, Bitcoin will form a false breakout pattern and drop to the 106000 Bitcoin weekly support level. If this position breaks, it will need to go and test the double bottom we just mentioned.

Bitcoin daily chart (Chart 5): The overall Bitcoin at the daily level has not seen any top signals; the Bollinger Bands, BBI, and MA all continue to extend upwards. Although indicators such as RSI and KDJ are showing overbought conditions, they have not yet formed a peak. The TD indicator has shown a 9-count line within the 2-day line. Pay attention to the pullback starting line of 106800 over the weekend. If this area breaks down, Bitcoin will confirm a pullback. If it does not break, there is still potential for continued upward momentum, as the key indicator CVD has not shown any divergence risk.

Resistance level: 118500
Support levels: 116800, 115500