#夏日创作营 ETH Two key levels to watch today: 1845 and 1900—once it breaks either, that’s the direction.
ETH surged yesterday and, after hitting the target area, it started consolidating in a high range—familiar taste.
With this kind of move, there are only two possible outcomes next—either build up energy for a breakout, or release it with a pullback.
And what you need to focus on today is these two lines: 1845 and 1900.
First, the fundamentals: there’s a bit of breath in the short term, but the medium term is still uncertain.
The Iran–US conflict is still ongoing. But honestly, since both sides signed a memorandum of understanding, the market has largely become desensitized to it. They fight while they talk—today you bomb a base, tomorrow I issue a statement—back and forth like that, with no real new variables. Even if there are signs recently that the U.S. may expand the scale of the war, the market reaction has been rather muted. Everyone’s stance is pretty consistent: whatever the final outcome is, I’ll wait and see—I’m not making a bet.
On the other side, recent U.S. economic data hasn’t looked great. So what does that mean? The probability of a rate hike in July is now next to none. Previously, ETH was being held down by rate-hike expectations, but this pressure has eased a bit, and the price has caught its breath.
But there’s a catch. Investment bank projections are—25 bps hike in September or October, and that probability has already been priced very high by the market. By December, it’s practically considered a done deal. So ETH’s situation is simple right now: in the short term, July’s hike is off the table, so it breathes. In the medium term, expectations for the September hike are still there, keeping institutions from rushing in aggressively at this time. A rebound is just a rebound, not a reversal.
Technical analysis: 1845 is today’s line in the sand
On the 4-hour timeframe, the bullish trend hasn’t fully finished. Earlier, when price pulled back to around 1813, it hit a very clear trend-strong support. Then the rebound over the past two days also makes sense. But the problem is—there isn’t enough strength in the push upward. It’s not the kind of volume-led breakout momentum; it’s more like slowly grinding up. With this kind of path, a correction could come at any time. The main resistance overhead is 1900–1924. This range is a key resistance for the medium-to-long term; you can’t just clear it with a single small rebound.
Switch to the hourly chart: today’s bull–bear pivot is very clear—1845. If 1845 holds, the bulls still have a chance to push up toward 1900–1924. If 1845 breaks, the short-term direction flips directly to bearish—this one line decides today’s script.
Trade strategy one: short on a high and pullback
If price first pushes up, but gets pushed back down in the 1900–1924 zone, you can try a short on the short term. Stop loss at 1927. Target 1851. The logic is simple—1900–1924 is a hard-top zone. If you can’t break through it on the first try, a pullback is likely.
Strategy two: go short after a breakdown
If the hourly timeframe drops below 1845, don’t hesitate. Stop loss 1867. First target 1813; if that breaks, then look at 1773. In an extreme case, it could reach 1700. The logic here is—1845 is the hourly bull–bear line. Once it’s lost, it means the short-term upward structure is broken, and more room opens up to the downside.
Summary: as long as 1845 doesn’t break, the short term is bias bullish—but 1900–1924 is the ceiling. Once 1845 breaks, direction flips straight to bearish, with 1813 (or even lower) in view. Honestly, the most important thing at this level is—don’t fight the trend. When the key level is reached and the direction shows up, just follow.
The analysis above is for market discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice.
$ETH
