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McKinsey Report: AI Development Exceeds Expectations, Reaching Human Level by 2030
Artificial Intelligence Will Rapidly Impact the Economy and Society
The latest report from McKinsey points out that the development speed of generative artificial intelligence (AI) exceeds expectations, and it is expected to reach human-level by 2030. Compared to the predictions made in 2017, the new report is more optimistic about the prospects of AI development.
The report emphasizes that AI has penetrated all aspects of life. Recently, the popularity of generative AI products such as ChatGPT, Copilot, and Stable Diffusion has made it easy for everyone to use AI to create text, images, and PPTs. The performance of ChatGPT, equipped with GPT-4, has significantly improved, and the processing speed of Anthropic’s Claude has also rapidly increased.
From an economic impact perspective, the report estimates that the application of generative AI across various industries could create a value of $2.6-4.4 trillion annually, an increase of 15%-40% compared to the $11-17.7 trillion forecasted in 2017. Customer operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, and research and development together account for 75% of the value generated by AI.
From the perspective of labor impact, AI is expected to change 25%-33% of jobs in the next 10 years. Knowledge work, decision-making, and collaboration activities are most affected by AI, with significant potential for the automation of expertise and management.
The report suggests that AI will accelerate the transformation of work in industries such as education and technology. Businesses need to consider how to leverage AI to create value and manage risks, governments need to formulate relevant policies, and individuals should seek a balance between the conveniences and impacts brought by AI.
Overall, this report provides a comprehensive analysis of the significant impact of generative AI on the economy and society, showcasing the immense potential of AI development while also highlighting issues that need attention.