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#PI The American "Beautiful Law" may have multiple impacts on Bitcoin, as detailed below:
From the perspective of debt and hedging demand: The bill plans to borrow $5 trillion, which is expected to increase the U.S. public debt and deficit, potentially increasing public debt by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years, with the debt-GDP ratio rising from 100% to 125%. The risk of U.S. government debt is increasing, and Moody's has removed its last AAA credit rating. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's hedging properties as "digital gold" may be strengthened, with more and more investors viewing it as a tool to hedge against U.S. debt risk, thereby driving up the price of Bitcoin.
From the perspective of capital flow: The fiscal expansion policy of the bill may prompt changes in the global capital flow pattern. On one hand, the tax reduction policy may increase the disposable income of Americans, and some funds may flow into the Bitcoin market, just like how Americans purchased Bitcoin with stimulus checks during the pandemic. On the other hand, if the bill leads to capital flowing out of the United States in search of new investment destinations, the reallocation of global liquidity may cause some funds to flow into the cryptocurrency market, providing support for Bitcoin prices.
From the perspective of money supply: In response to the fiscal deficit caused by the legislation, the Federal Reserve may be forced to print money, thus expanding the M2 money supply. Historically, the price of Bitcoin has had a certain correlation with the M2 money supply, although there is a lag, the increase in money supply may drive up the price of Bitcoin, as more funds seek avenues for value preservation and appreciation. Bitcoin, as a scarce digital asset, will attract some of this capital.
From the remittance policy perspective: The bill proposes a 5% tax on remittances sent abroad by non-U.S. citizens, which could affect more than 40 million people. To avoid taxes, some remitters may choose cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a remittance channel, as cryptocurrency transactions offer a certain level of anonymity and convenience, which will drive up the demand for Bitcoin and positively impact its price.
From the perspective of market sentiment: The passage of the bill has alleviated to some extent the tense atmosphere caused by debt issues and policy uncertainty, and the overall risk appetite of the market may improve. This improvement in sentiment helps attract more investors into the market, including the cryptocurrency market, which has a positive effect on Bitcoin prices. However, due to the structural issues currently present in the Bitcoin market, such as high-level fluctuations and lack of significant volume expansion, it is difficult to form strong upward momentum in the short term!