The fundamental contradiction of this bull run: strong expectations brought by external factors and weak realities of internal development.

A few views on the current Secondary Market:

1. The current debate over bull and bear markets is meaningless. It is important to know that besides the continuous rise and fall of coin prices, bull and bear markets are mainly supported by the market’s expected consensus.

If the market unanimously believes that most projects are “garbage”, and listing on exchanges has become the end of the journey, while the “positive news” created by the project team is ignored, then it is undoubtedly a “bear market”.

A market with a collapsing expectation of “consensus” is scarier than one that simply has no “price” performance.

2. The current Crypto environment seems easier than ever, yet harder than ever.

From the early ICO market’s expectation of decentralized infrastructure’s initial construction, to the previous cycle’s market upgrading and iterating around technology narratives, and then to the institutional adoption leading to a major bullish wave and the explosive wealth effect of MEME Coins, until finally, the long-awaited spot ETF for crypto has been realized, along with the support of a crypto-friendly U.S. government, compliance legislation and planning are also on the way, all “external factors” seem to be looking positive.

But looking at Crypto itself, which projects are truly irreplaceable? What kind of technology infrastructure has the potential for large-scale application? Which narratives are truly unfalsifiable? Which coins can grow alongside us for the long term? Or are there any MEMEs that can let us sleep soundly overnight? … Presumably, when thinking of these “internal factors” questions, most people feel confused.

Obviously, with only favorable external factors and no internal value support, the market will still remain in a “chaotic” state. If we ignore the trace of value and irrationally focus solely on the macroeconomic stimulus for investment, this market is bound to be too torturous, right?

3. The question arises, what should we do? Call for the return of technical narratives; clearly, it won’t work without new innovative applications of old technology projects. Similarly, the criticism of the MEME market’s irrationality also stems from the avoidance of the main contradiction that technology cannot be implemented. Everything is actually a systemic issue within the industry, caused by long-term opacity, potential manipulation, lack of regulation, and excessive profit-seeking, which contribute to “gameplay + internal friction.”

To break the deadlock, the process will certainly be painful and must be left to time. For example, how to reasonably value a valuable project, how to deprive worthless harvesting projects of their survival soil, and how to ensure that some new narrative directions can continue to evolve and develop, etc.

From a different perspective, when the speculative wave of a market where “assets are as numerous as cows” has passed, and after everything is pressed down by the market, the opportunity for our value investment will truly arrive. Even if there are many junk projects, there will always be some teams with great visions, innovation + execution capabilities, and a long-term commitment to building, right?

In fact, the Crypto industry has experienced excessive FOMO and moments of pessimistic despair during each Cycle, but it seems to have endured, and has always unexpectedly found breakthrough strategies. Looking back, it has actually been making progress.