#夏日创作营
In the past few days, Hong Kong stocks have performed okay.
So, as Hong Kong stocks rebound, is it a bounce or a full reversal?
First, the answer: I think, just like tech, it’s basically a rebound after a selloff from Wave A—not a reversal.
1. From the capital side
In Hong Kong stocks, the relative parties with pricing power—or that have a bigger impact on the price trend—are foreign investors.
Foreign investors account for roughly 60%–70% of Hong Kong stocks.
And among these foreign investors, there are two parts:
allocation capital and trading capital.
Of these, there is more capital that is geared toward longer-term allocation.
That means it’s not short-term gambling for a quick move, but that they genuinely think you’ve fallen too much.
Some US-dollar funds view Hong Kong as part of the Asian market. After it has dropped too far, they may add positions, and thus make allocations.
Another part is short-term trading capital.
It has some speculative attributes.
That is, they like the trend in the market over this period, and then money pours in.
Earlier, didn’t things go crazy in South Korea with Samsung and SK hynix? Those funds all headed to South Korea, and so the whole Hong Kong market dimmed.
According to statistics, as of the first week of July, foreign allocation-oriented funds have flowed in more, while trading-oriented funds not only haven’t flowed in, but have seen some outflows.
Overall, Hong Kong stocks have had too much downside, and people are coming to add positions—but we haven’t seen signals of a reversal yet.
So, from the capital side, it still leans toward a rebound, not a reversal.
2. From the sector side
So what about sectors?
In Hong Kong’s market, there are basically only a few kinds of sectors:
innovative drugs, Hang Seng Tech, new consumption, and state-owned/central-government SOE assets that lean more “value/dividend-like.”
Which sectors are rising now, and what’s the logic?
Innovative drugs are being bought because people are optimistic about its mid-term earnings.
Hang Seng Tech (AI applications) is mainly because everyone expects marginal growth to improve, but current earnings have not yet been validated.
3. From the liquidity side
At present, the Fed is still raising rates in words.
Not only that, the Hong Kong stock market will also face a wave of unlocks at the end of September this year.
Although to hedge the impact of the unlocks, related parties from several companies have voluntarily committed to extend lock-up periods or not cut their holdings within certain timeframes,
but the unlock wave itself will inevitably, to some extent, bring concerns about liquidity to the market.
On one side, US rate-hike expectations are shrinking liquidity.
On the other side, the unlock wave still needs to fan the flames.
Plus, global liquidity is currently on the tight side.
When liquidity tightens, it means there is less market capital.
Whether the bull market is over—we won’t go there. Stepping back, even if there really is a bull market, it would be a structural bull market.
After all, there’s only so much money. It’s easy to cover one area while neglecting another: you might save Hong Kong stocks, but still need to save the mainland A-shares.
So overall, because Hong Kong stocks fell quite deeply earlier, there is still room for a rebound here.
But whether it’s truly a reversal—Xiao Caishen thinks we need to be more cautious and wait and see.

#夏日创作营
Listed tomorrow! How much money can you make from one lot in ChangXin Technology?
The previously hyped-up listing date for ChangXin Technology has been confirmed! According to an official announcement, the company’s shares will officially begin trading on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, 2026.
As 2026’s most eye-catching “mega-cap” new share in China’s A-share market, ChangXin Technology’s process took only 148 days—from its IPO application being accepted on December 30, 2025, to passing the review successfully on May 27, 2026. After receiving the CSRC approval to register on June 12, the company published its listing prospectus on the evening of July 23, with a speed that is truly astonishing.
The发行 price is 8.66 yuan per share. The total market value upon offering is approximately 579.19B yuan (30k yuan). The company expects to raise about 57.9 billion yuan. Its fund-raising scale ranks first in the history of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board.
With one lot, how much can you actually earn?
This is the question on everyone’s mind when applying for new shares.
According to Sci-Tech Innovation Board rules, one lot of ChangXin Technology equals 500 shares. At the offering price of 8.66 yuan per share, one lot requires payment of 4,330 yuan.
So, what can these 4,330 yuan become? Multiple institutions have released predictions under different scenarios:
Listing market value: 3 trillion yuan
Implied share price: 44.86 yuan/share
Profit from one lot: about 18.1 thousand yuan
Listing market value: 4 trillion yuan
Implied share price: close to 60 yuan/share
Profit from one lot: about 25.6 thousand yuan
Listing market value: 5 trillion yuan
Profit from one lot: about 33.1 thousand yuan
Based on the neutral expectations of multiple institutions, after listing ChangXin Technology’s market value is expected to be about 3 trillion yuan, with profit from one lot of around 20 thousand yuan.
Invest 4,330 yuan for a potential return of nearly 20 thousand yuan—this odds really is enticing.
Winning rate 0.47%, highest within the year
For this online issuance, the number of effective subscription accounts was 9.4288 million, and the effective subscription shares were 816.92 billion shares.
The final online winning rate was 0.47141739%. What does that mean?
Ranked first among new shares in the year
Far above the typical 0.02%-0.03% level for most new shares.
There are 7,702,207 winning numbers in total.
Put simply: out of every 1,000 subscribers, about 4.7 people are able to win a lot. Although the winning rate is still not high, this is already the easiest new share to win this year.
Why is it so heavily sought after?
ChangXin Technology is China’s largest-scale, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensively laid-out integrated company for DRAM R&D, design, and manufacturing, with production capacity ranking first in China and fourth globally.
More importantly, its performance has surged explosively:
- In full-year 2025, it achieved attributable net profit of 18.1k yuan, turning from loss to profit for the first time
- In Q1 2026, revenue was 50.8 billion yuan, up 719%; attributable net profit was 40k yuan, up 1,688%
- For the first half of 2026, attributable net profit is expected to be between 50 billion and 57 billion yuan, with average daily profit close to 300 million yuan
From consecutive losses to earning 300 million yuan per day—this company’s growth pace is truly astonishing.
Reminder: Price volatility may be significant in the initial listing period
However, investors who win lots should also be reminded that for the first five trading days after listing, there is no daily price limit, and the stock price may swing very sharply.
In addition, the company’s initial publicly tradable shares without sale restrictions are only about 25.6k shares, accounting for just 6.73% of the total share capital after issuance. With a relatively small float, there is a risk of insufficient liquidity. This means even a small amount of capital could trigger large price swings.
ChangXin Technology is set to list tomorrow. The lucky winners of one lot may be able to capture returns ranging from about 18.1 thousand to 33.1 thousand yuan.
Of course, everything above is predictions made by institutions under different market scenarios; actual returns still have large uncertainties. Ultimately, new-share performance depends on market sentiment and the level of capital chasing.
But in any case, as the largest IPO in the history of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the leading domestic DRAM chip company, ChangXin Technology’s debut is worth everyone’s attention.