Bitcoin options expire at $6 billion! $1.15 billion floods into put positions, price may dip to $93,500.

Nearly $6 billion worth of Bitcoin options and Ethereum options are set to expire, with a surge in bearish bets causing market turmoil. Deribit data shows that the ratio of Bitcoin put options to call options is 0.83, with a total open interest of 43,905 BTC, a notional value exceeding $4.79 billion, and the maximum pain point located at $116,000.

4.79 billion USD Bitcoin options expiration: put positions surge

(Source: Deribit)

The trading price of Bitcoin is around $108,969, hovering above key support levels, as derivatives traders continue to price in more downside risk. Data from Deribit shows that the ratio of Bitcoin put options to call options is 0.83, with a total open interest of 43,905 BTC and a notional value exceeding $4.79 billion.

The put-to-call ratio of 0.83 means that for every 83 put options, there are 100 call options in the market. Although this ratio has not yet reached an extreme bearish level (typically above 1.0 is considered extremely bearish), it already indicates a clear trend of defensive positions being established. In a normal bull market environment, this ratio typically ranges between 0.5 and 0.7, and the current 0.83 shows that traders are taking a cautious stance on the short-term trend.

The current maximum pain point is around $116,000. This is the strike price that will be worthless for most options at expiration, indicating that traders believe the short-term upside potential is limited. The maximum pain theory posits that options sellers (usually market makers) will try their best to keep the price near the maximum pain point at expiration, as this minimizes their losses. The current Bitcoin price of $109,000 has approximately 6.4% upside potential to the maximum pain point of $116,000, suggesting that Bitcoin may face upward resistance before expiration.

According to Greeks.Live, over $1.15 billion has recently flowed into short-term out-of-the-money put options, accounting for about 28% of the total trading volume of Bitcoin options. This figure is quite significant, indicating that a substantial amount of capital is preparing for a decline. Out-of-the-money put options are those with a strike price lower than the current market price, and purchasing such options means that investors expect prices to fall significantly. The concentrated inflow of $1.15 billion shows that market concerns about the risk of a crash are intensifying.

The options skew has sharply turned negative, reflecting the strongest demand for downside protection since the market pullback on the 11th. The options skew measures the difference in implied volatility between different strike prices. When the skew is negative, it means that the implied volatility of out-of-the-money put options is higher than that of out-of-the-money call options, indicating that the market is willing to pay a higher premium for downside protection.

Key Data for Bitcoin Options:

Open Contracts: 43,905 BTC, notional value 4.79 billion USD

Put/Call Ratio: 0.83, defensive position is obvious

Biggest Pain Point: $116,000, limiting short-term bullish potential

Put options inflow: 1.15 billion USD, accounting for 28% of total trading volume.

Ethereum Options Market: $4,100 Becomes a Key Threshold

(Source: Deribit)

Ethereum is hovering at $3,930, with key support at $4,050. Due to Selini Capital's loss of $50 million, cautious sentiment persists, thus facing pressure. The trading price for Ethereum options is $3,921, slightly below its maximum pain point of $4,100. Open interest stands at 251,884 ETH, with a put to call ratio of 0.81, reflecting similar defensive positions.

The put/call ratio of Ethereum options is 0.81, even slightly lower than Bitcoin's 0.83, indicating a stronger bearish sentiment in the Ethereum market. Given Ethereum's relatively weak recent performance, the establishment of this defensive position is not surprising. The maximum pain point of $4,100 is only 4.6% away from the current price of $3,921, suggesting that Ethereum may consolidate around the current price before expiration.

This sense of unease partially stems from the Selini Capital crisis, which reportedly lost $50 million due to failed underlying trade Closures. This event dealt a heavy blow to the derivatives market, with traders pointing out that the discount of IBIT and Selini needs to stabilize before any meaningful bullish catalysts can emerge.

Selini Capital is a fund focused on cryptocurrency derivatives trading, and the loss of 50 million USD has caused a stir in institutional circles. The basic trading strategy refers to simultaneously holding spot long and futures short positions to earn funding rates, which is considered a low-risk strategy, but under extreme market conditions, it may still result in a Close Position failure leading to significant losses. The Selini case serves as a warning about the leverage risks in the derivatives market.

Macroeconomic pressures and political uncertainty suppress risk appetite

Due to political volatility, tariff concerns, and the pressure of IBIT discounts on the cryptocurrency market's risk appetite, the options skew has significantly decreased. At the same time, political turmoil continues to bring uncertainty. The erratic statements of the Trump administration on tariffs and oil sanctions are frustrating, leading to unpredictable market fluctuations.

The combination of policy noise and the leverage dilemma is comprehensively stifling risk appetite. Market makers and liquidity providers seem to be actively preparing for a pullback, indicating their growing concerns about broader market stability. This shift in sentiment suggests that hedging through put options is currently the most prudent strategy, especially in the context of ongoing political and macroeconomic turbulence.

The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains cautiously bearish, with traders viewing $93,500 as a potential bottom and $100,000 as a short-term upward target after a rebound. This conservative expectation reflects the current fragility of the market. $93,500 is the recent low, and if it falls below this level, it will trigger more stop-loss orders and panic selling. $100,000 is a psychological barrier, and only after breaking through can bullish confidence be rebuilt.

Market Impact and Trading Strategies of Options Expiration

As the skew of options with different maturities deepens into negative territory, and the options liquidity focuses on downside hedging, the market narrative has turned defensive. The ratio of put options to call options reflects that traders are preparing for short-term volatility rather than long-term capitulation.

Large expirations often change short-term trends and signal investor pressure. The intensification of uncertainty in the political and cryptocurrency realms has heightened defensive sentiment across the market. The potential bottom support level for Bitcoin is around $93,500, while the rebound threshold is near $100,000. However, the level of $116,000 represents a looming pain point above.

Despite facing pressure, some participants are cautiously selling put options as they approach the bottom, which is a strategy in options trading aimed at profiting from potential rebounds. However, the capital flow during the Asian trading session remains significantly bearish, and traders expect the sell-off to continue.

Unless macro conditions improve or the Selini crisis stabilizes, the bearish tendency in the Bitcoin options and Ether options market suggests that the next significant move in cryptocurrency may still unfold downward.