Solana price prediction: annual fee of 5 billion dollars, Grayscale bullish 260 dollars

The latest report from cryptocurrency asset management giant Grayscale points out that Solana's stable on-chain growth could drive SOL to break through the 2021 bull run peak of $260. Solana price prediction data shows an average of 4,587 users per day on the network, 96,200 transactions, and an annual revenue of $5 billion.

VanEck has a more aggressive prediction of $520 by the end of the year, while the CEO of NoOnes estimates $300 by early 2026. The current price of $202 is considered severely undervalued by several institutions.

Grayscale's Quantitative Analysis: Why Bullish on $260

(Source: Grayscale)

The cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale conducted a comprehensive fundamental analysis of Solana in its latest "Cryptocurrency Financial Market" report. Grayscale believes that Solana is in a leading position in the blockchain category in terms of user numbers, transaction volume, and transaction fees, and these core indicators make SOL stand out among its peers.

Grayscale's research team clearly pointed out: "These are not the only important considerations, but on these core blockchain foundations, Solana stands out among its peers." This statement reflects the cautious attitude of professional institutions—they acknowledge that evaluating blockchain value requires multidimensional indicators, but on the most critical dimensions, Solana does indeed perform exceptionally well.

The report shows that [Solana]/buy-solana-sol( has an average of 4,587 users daily, processing up to 96,200 transactions each day, achieving the highest transactions per second (TPS) among major blockchains such as Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Tron. These numbers may seem abstract, but when converted into market share and usage density, their significance becomes clear. Although 4,587 daily active users is not a large absolute number, considering these are real users paying Gas fees (rather than bots or airdrop hunters), this figure represents tangible demand.

Even more impressive is the fee revenue data. Solana applications generate approximately $425 million in fees each month, with an annualized revenue exceeding $5 billion. This figure is critically significant in Solana price predictions, as it represents the actual scale of economic activity within the ecosystem. The willingness of users to pay $5 billion in fees to utilize applications on Solana indicates that these applications indeed create value.

) 260 USD: Fair Value Rather Than Ceiling

Based on these indicators and the 7% staking rewards for validators protecting network security, Grayscale analysts believe that SOL's current value ($202.36) is undervalued. More importantly, Grayscale's research shows that the $260 threshold reached in November 2021 represents SOL's fair value, which is based on the stable growth and leading indicators that SOL has achieved since the collapse triggered by FTX in December 2022.

Grayscale confirmed: "Since the collapse of FTX, SOL's performance has significantly outperformed the FTSE/Grayscale Smart Contract Platform Cryptocurrency Industry Index." This comparison is crucial. The FTX collapse was catastrophic for Solana—FTX and Alameda were among the largest supporters of the Solana ecosystem, and the collapse directly caused the price of SOL to plummet from $260 to $8, a drop of over 96%.

After such a brutal blow, Solana not only survived but also achieved a stable recovery, which itself proves the resilience of its technology and ecosystem. The current price of $202 has risen 25 times compared to the low of $8, but Grayscale believes this is not enough—$260 is the reasonable valuation based on the current fundamentals. In other words, the 29% increase from $202 to $260 is not a speculative surge but a return to value.

More aggressive forecast: VanEck's $520 target

Grayscale's $260 prediction is relatively conservative, while other institutions like VanEck have given more aggressive Solana price forecasts. In September 2024, VanEck's Director of Digital Asset Research, Matthew Sigel, stated that ###/sell-solana-sol[Solana] is undervalued and expects its market cap to reach 50% of Ethereum's market cap at that time, which corresponds to a valuation of $330.

Even more astonishingly, VanEck predicts that the price of SOL could soar to $520 by the end of this year. From the current $202 to $520, this represents a 157% increase, which means more than 2.5 times the return. What is this prediction based on?

VanEck's logic may be: if Solana has reached or even surpassed Ethereum in technical performance, developer ecosystem, and application richness, then its market capitalization should reach a certain proportion of Ethereum. Ethereum's current market cap is about $300 billion, 50% of which is $150 billion. Currently, Solana's market cap is about $90 billion, so to reach $150 billion, the price needs to rise to around $330.

The extreme target of 520 dollars may be based on the emotional premium during the bull run peak. In the 2021 bull run, Solana soared from 1.5 dollars at the beginning of the year to 260 dollars, with an annual increase of over 170 times. If the fervor of this bull run is close to the previous one, 520 dollars is not entirely impossible.

( NoOnes CEO's Mid-term Forecast

NoOnes CEO Ray Youssef provided a relatively moderate mid-term forecast. He told CryptoNews that Solana is making progress in the layer one arms race, with strong fundamentals, increasing institutional inflows, and a stable revenue leadership position. He pointed out that the resilience shown by Solana in the third quarter and the upcoming network upgrades could potentially drive its price to $300 by early 2026.

A price of 300 USD represents an increase of about 48% from the current price, which is a relatively realistic and achievable target. Youssef's forecast timeline extends to early 2026, giving Solana more time to prove itself and allowing the market space to digest and adjust.

) Analysis of Solana's Core Competitive Advantages

Why do so many institutions have a positive outlook on Solana price predictions? The answer lies in its multi-dimensional competitive advantages.

1. The Absolute Advantage of Speed and Cost

Solana has gained a competitive position by providing fast and inexpensive transactions. The network generates a new block every 400 milliseconds, with transactions completed in about 12-13 seconds. In comparison, Ethereum's block time is around 12 seconds, and final transaction confirmation can take several minutes. Bitcoin's block time can be as long as 10 minutes.

Transaction costs have remained low, with users averaging only $0.02 per year to date. This figure is so low that it is almost negligible. Solana uses Local Fee Markets to limit fee competition to specific high-demand applications, with this year's median daily transaction fee averaging only $0.001. Even during the busiest times on the network, ordinary users hardly feel the presence of Gas fees.

In addition, the upcoming upgraded version Alpenglow is expected to reduce the final time to 100-150 milliseconds. From 400 milliseconds to 100 milliseconds, this will further expand Solana's speed advantage, approaching the performance level of centralized systems.

2. The Moat Effect of SVM Architecture

![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-87a9b3933a-dd90fbab66-153d09-69ad2a.webp###

(Source: Grayscale)

Solana uses a unique architecture called the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), which is different from the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) used by Ethereum, BNB Chain, Polygon, and Avalanche. Applications based on the SVM cannot be easily transferred to non-SVM blockchains, which may create sticky demand.

This technical difference creates an ecological locking effect. Once developers build complex applications on the SVM, the cost of migrating to other chains is extremely high—requiring the rewriting of a large amount of code, retesting, and redeployment. This conversion cost makes developers more inclined to stay in the Solana ecosystem for the long term, rather than frequently jumping between different chains.

More than 1,000 full-time developers are dedicated to Solana and SVM-based applications. According to Electric Capital's blockchain developer report, the number of developers focused on Solana has grown faster than any other smart contract platform in the past two years. Developers are the core asset of any blockchain ecosystem, and their growth often leads user growth and price increases.

(# 3. Ecosystem Matrix of Killer Applications

The Solana ecosystem has already nurtured multiple killer applications. Raydium is a decentralized exchange and a core component of Solana's DeFi infrastructure, with a trading volume exceeding 1.2 trillion USD, surpassing any other blockchain ecosystem. Jupiter is Solana's leading DEX aggregator and the largest aggregator by trading volume in the cryptocurrency industry.

Pump.fun is a memecoin launch platform and social application that attracts around 2 million active users each month, generating about 1.2 million USD in revenue daily. This figure is astonishing—one single application can generate over 400 million USD in revenue annually, which is the standard for successful products in the Web2 world.

Helium is a decentralized physical infrastructure project focused on mobile hotspots, currently offering services that are cheaper than centralized alternatives. Its Solana-based protocol has 1.5 million daily active users and 112,000 hotspots, and has established partnerships with major telecom companies such as AT&T and Telefónica. Helium's success demonstrates Solana's potential in the DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) space.

These examples represent only a small portion of the more than 500 unique applications on Solana. As a general-purpose blockchain, Solana ranks third in NFT trading volume, fifth in stablecoin trading volume, and seventh in tokenized assets. This multidimensional leadership allows Solana to no longer rely on a single narrative, but instead occupy an important position across multiple tracks.

) User Experience: Solana's Hidden Competitive Advantage

Despite the challenges that encryption currencies face in terms of user experience, Solana still offers one of the best new user experiences in the industry. Its fast and low-cost transactions, rich applications, and "monolithic" design eliminate the need to bridge assets between network components. Its wallet infrastructure led by Phantom also contributes to this advantage.

What is "monolithic" design? Unlike Ethereum's modular approach (mainnet + Layer 2 + sidechains), Solana integrates all functionalities on a single chain. Users do not need to bridge assets across Layer 1 and Layer 2, nor do they need to worry about the security differences between different Layers, as all operations are completed in the same environment. This unity significantly reduces cognitive load and operational complexity.

The design of the Phantom wallet is equally indispensable. Its interface is intuitive, features are complete, and it is deeply integrated with mainstream applications, allowing new users to complete the entire process from installation to the first transaction within minutes. In contrast, while there are many wallet options in the Ethereum ecosystem, they also bring about difficulties in choice and compatibility issues.