Hyperliquid ( HYPE ) price prediction: After a pullback of 35% from the high, can the Polymarket integration trigger a $100 Rebound?

Perp DEX trailblazer Hyperliquid (HYPE) has seen a big dump of 35% from its high of $60.00 to $38.87 in October, currently testing the critical technical support level of $38.11, with technical structure indicating a fully bearish outlook. However, on October 14th, Polymarket launched the HYPE direct deposit feature, connecting the prediction market with Hyperliquid's perpetual futures, enhancing the infrastructure expansion. Despite the price weakness, Hyperliquid has surpassed the total of all other chains in fee generation, and analysis firm Arete Capital forecasts its target price to be $75 to $100 (based on a 15-20x P/E), indicating strong fundamentals and long-term value.

Technical Pressure: Price structure shows a full bearish outlook

HYPE, after experiencing a deep pullback, all key moving averages constitute huge resistance, indicating significant short-term pressure.

· The price has fallen sharply and tested key support.

HYPE price is $38.87, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, currently testing the key support level of $38.11, and below all key EMAs. The price has fallen 35% from the October peak of $60.00.

· The indicators show a bear market structure

Technical indicators show a全面看跌排列:

• 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMA are located at $43.80, $45.67, and $44.02, forming a massive resistance cluster.
• MACD depth is negative (-0.68), RSI is at 43.82, close to the oversold area, while ATR (Average True Range) is as high as 30.41, indicating significant market volatility.

Market Background: Expansion of DEX Infrastructure and Controversy over CEX Transparency

The HYPE protocol is strengthening its infrastructure through key integrations and upgrades, while the market is experiencing the "DEX Quarter".

· Polymarket deep integration

On October 14, Polymarket launched HYPE direct deposits, eliminating cross-chain bridges and connecting the prediction market with Hyperliquid's perpetual futures. This integration occurred as the protocol's trading volume surpassed $1 trillion.

· HIP-3 Upgrade and CEX Controversy

HIP-3 upgrade introduces permissionless market creation, requiring each operator to stake 500,000 HYPE.

The community has noticed that Hyperliquid is "running perfectly" after experiencing a coordinated liquidation attempt, and founder Jeff's comments on mainstream CEX's "lack of transparency" have sparked discussions. Eva Oberholzer, Chief Information Officer of Ajna Capital, believes that perpetual futures provide a timely use case for DEX to welcome the next wave of DeFi users.

· Top traders bet on long-term bullish

Top trader James Wynn deposited 197,000 USDC and opened a long position worth $4.8 million, indicating that despite the price fall, "smart money" is confident in the long-term potential of the protocol.

Market Fundamentals: Fee generation surpasses all public chains, strong long-term valuation

Despite the price pullback, the fundamentals of HYPE remain strong, especially in terms of fee generation, where it leads the industry.

· Fee Generation Leader

The fee generation of Hyperliquid exceeds the total of all other chains, with BNB and Ethereum ranking second and third.

· Market Cap and TVL Data

The market cap of HYPE is still $13.08 billion, with a fully diluted valuation of $38.84 billion. Its total value locked (TVL) has reached $5.5 billion.

· The buyback mechanism promotes scarcity

Arete Capital expects to remove 80,000 to 100,000 HYPE daily through buybacks, reducing the circulating supply to approximately 220 million. Their 2026 model targets revenue of $1.87 billion, based on a P/E ratio of 15-20, with an expected price range of $45 to $100, supporting their long-term investment thesis.

Price Prediction and Scenario Analysis: Can We Avoid a Deep Correction?

HYPE is currently at a critical crossroads, and the future price movement will depend on protocol expansion and whether it can hold the key support level.

· Short-term and long-term goals

Immediate target: Must hold 38.11 USD, otherwise it will fall towards the 35-37 USD range.

90-day target: HIP-3 expansion and fee generation are expected to drive a rebound to 47 USD, with Polymarket expansion further pushing towards 52 USD and above.

· Three Scenario Predictions

Protocol extension successful (45% probability): Stay above $38.11, pushing the price back to $47 to $52 (21-34% upside potential).

Extended consolidation (35% probability): After falling below $38.11, it consolidates between $35 and $40, creating conditions for infrastructure development and catalyst-driven recovery.

Deep correction (20% probability): If $38.11 is lost, it may trigger a sell-off to the structural support level of $27 to $30 (23-31% fall range).

Conclusion

HYPE is struggling at the edge of a technical pullback, testing the key support level of 38.11 USD. However, its fundamentals remain as the undisputed leader in the DEX space, with its fee generation capabilities and infrastructure enhancements brought by the Polymarket integration providing a solid foundation for long-term growth. The short-term market fluctuations reflect the clearing of speculative sentiment, but if the protocol can successfully hold the current support and advance the HIP-3 upgrade, HYPE is expected to achieve the long-term target of up to 100 USD predicted by Arete Capital, creating a strategic accumulation zone for investors.

This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.