Gold breaks 4000 USD, will Bitcoin pull back before hitting 150,000? During the National Day holiday, meme coins big pump 40 people earn over 100 million.

Gold breaks through the historic barrier of 4000 USD, Bitcoin slightly pulls back after reaching a new high of 126,200 USD. Analysts predict it may first retest 117,000 USD before challenging the 150,000 USD mark. Meanwhile, during the National Day holiday, the meme coin craze sweeps the market, with 100,000 traders participating and 40 people making over a million USD in profits, leading to unprecedented market enthusiasm.

Gold breaks through the historical barrier of 4000 USD, Wall Street giants are increasing their holdings

On the last day of the National Day holiday, the spot gold price historically broke through the $4,000 mark per ounce, reaching a peak of $4,037. This round of increase is the result of multiple factors, including market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy, risks of government shutdown, global trade uncertainties, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a loose monetary policy cycle.

Investors are flocking to gold ETFs seeking hedges, recording the largest monthly capital inflow in over three years in September. Billionaire Ray Dalio compares the current scenario to the high inflation and economic turmoil of the 1970s, believing that gold is a safer asset than the US dollar, and suggests allocating about 15% in portfolios. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital even recommends raising the gold allocation to 25%.

However, the views of Wall Street giants on the market outlook are not completely一致. Ken Griffin of Citadel Investment believes that the rise of gold and Bitcoin reflects market concerns about the US dollar, and is a "devaluation trade." Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment believes that the US stock market is on the brink of an explosive phase at the end of a bull market and plans to hold gold, cryptocurrencies, and technology stocks simultaneously by the end of the year to capture a potential surge that could be more explosive than the dot-com bubble of 1999.

Gold Price Outlook: Significant Upside Potential but Possible Short-term Pullback

Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price target to $4,900 by the end of 2026, but Bank of America strategist Paul Ciana warns that gold prices are nearing a cyclical peak and may enter a consolidation or correction phase in the fourth quarter. Fxempire also points out that despite a long-term bullish outlook, the likelihood of a substantial pullback after a parabolic rise is significantly increasing, with potential support around $3,700.

Bitcoin hits a new historical high and then pulls back, analysts predict a drop followed by a rise

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,200 on October 6, and although there has been a slight pullback, the overall upward structure remains solid. Analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that the Bitcoin monthly futures premium is in a neutral range, indicating that this round of price increase is driven by actual capital inflows rather than excessive speculation, which reduces the risk of a sharp decline.

Regarding the market outlook, analysts are generally optimistic, with bullish targets pointing towards reaching 150,000 USD or higher by the end of the year. Specifically, analyst Mags believes that holding the support level of 120,000 USD is key to continuing upward momentum, with the next resistance level seen at 135,000 USD. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, states that Bitcoin is building strength for a breakthrough at 150,000 USD, and if there is a pullback, the area between 118,500 USD and 120,500 USD is an ideal entry point.

On-chain data indicates potential pullback range

(Source: CoinGlass)

On-chain data also supports a bullish outlook. Glassnode data shows that the short-term holder cost basis model for Bitcoin indicates that there is still room for price appreciation before reaching $133,460, with a higher resistance level around $150,000, while the key support level is at $113,300. Bitcoin's cost basis distribution indicates weak support between $121,000 and $120,000, while a critical support area forms around $117,000, with approximately 190,000 BTC purchased in that area.

Analysts such as AlphaBTC and KillaXBT have also pointed out the short-term pullback risks, believing that the market may need a pullback of 15%-20% to test the support at $117,000 or even $109,000, laying the groundwork for a larger rally in the fourth quarter.

National Day Holiday Chinese Meme Coin Craze: 100,000 Participants, 40 People Profit Over One Million Dollars

During the National Day holiday, the Chinese Meme coin craze became the market focus. According to Bubblemaps data, over 100,000 on-chain traders participated in this round of Meme coin purchases, with 70% of them realizing profits. Even more astonishing, one person profited over 10 million dollars, and 40 people profited over 1 million dollars.

Multiple Meme projects that have launched on CEX Alpha have shown impressive performance, such as PALU, which rose 36% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about 100 million USD. Other projects not yet launched on Alpha, like "客服小何" and "大表哥", have also recorded significant increases. This wave of enthusiasm has also driven the development of related ecosystem projects, such as the token FORM of the Chinese Meme launch platform Four, which once surged nearly 50% in price, but subsequently saw a price pullback due to whales depositing large amounts of tokens into exchanges.

Ethereum lags behind Bitcoin, analysts expect it to catch up

Compared to Bitcoin's strong breakout, Ethereum's performance seems to lag behind somewhat. When Bitcoin reached a new high, Ethereum failed to break through the key resistance level of $4,800 and subsequently pulled back to below $4,500. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly pointed out that although Ethereum's increase since 2022 (15%) is far less than Bitcoin's (130%), showing a "liquidity lag" phenomenon, some on-chain indicators suggest it may be catching up.

The Ethereum reserves of the exchange have decreased by more than 25% since 2022, with a continuous net outflow indicating that supply is decreasing and selling pressure is easing. The current market signals are mixed: the spot market is experiencing net selling pressure, while the futures market remains active, suggesting that leveraged traders are still positioning themselves.

Regarding the key price levels, analyst Skew believes that if Ethereum can hold the recent attempts to break through the $4,700-$4,800 range, it will be a "quite bullish" signal. Biraajmaan Tamuly analyzes that short-term liquidity may sweep around $4,400, and if a strong rebound can be achieved here, the bullish momentum is likely to continue; however, if it fails to hold, the pullback may extend to the demand area of $4,250 to $4,100, which is regarded as a critical level for a potential trend reversal.

Key Market Data and Outlook

Key Data (as of October 8, 13:00 HKT)

Bitcoin: $121,742 (Year-to-date +30.04%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $78.83 billion

Ethereum: $4,451 (Year-to-date +33.45%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $52.35 billion

Fear and Greed Index: 55 (Neutral)

Market share: BTC 58.3%, ETH 12.9%

24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 48.56%/51.44%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 179,644 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 690 million USD.

ETF Fund Flow (as of October 7)

Bitcoin ETF: -23.81 million USD, outflow after 6 consecutive days of net inflow

Ethereum ETF: +$421 million, net inflow for 7 consecutive days

Market Outlook Today

The UK FCA will open retail access to cryptocurrency ETNs on October 8.

The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting (October 9, 02:00)

Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock about 1.46 million tokens on October 8.

With gold breaking through historic levels, Bitcoin entering a pullback period after reaching new highs, and the explosive growth of Chinese meme coins during the National Day holiday, the market is ushering in a new round of capital rotation and opportunities. Investors should closely monitor the potential pullback range of Bitcoin and the further trends of gold, while remaining vigilant in the meme coin market, paying attention to risk management while chasing high returns.