Metals & Macro Liquidity

The U.S. announces a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to respond to the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks, triggering a sharp surge in oil prices. Oil prices rebound to above $100, and U.S. stock index futures fall. Gold and cryptocurrencies also slip; Bitcoin falls back to above 70K, and the total market value drops to $2.41 trillion.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XAGUSD (Silver) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News message, A whale identified as "0x9e8" closed the majority of its $SILVER long position with 20x leverage and opened a 95,577 $CL long position with 20x leverage valued at $9 million over the past 5 hours. This trading activity occurred as the U.S.-Iran negotiations did not reach success.

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 lowered its annual inflation rate to 0.85%, for the first time below gold’s 1.5–2%. Bitcoin’s scarcity comes from code rules: supply will gradually decrease, and another halving is expected again in 2028. This halving cycle witnessed increased participation from institutional investors, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as digital gold.

Central banks are now holding more gold reserves than valuation-adjusted US dollar reserves for the first time, with a $140 billion gap favoring gold. This shift reflects growing geopolitical concerns and the unreliability of dollar reserves, as central banks increasingly prefer gold amidst uncertainty.

According to data from a research institution, crypto perpetual contracts that are anchored to traditional assets are gradually becoming a tool for “pre-pricing Wall Street,” with their weekend price movements predicting the accuracy of Monday’s traditional market by as much as 89%. Trading volume and weekend activity for these contracts have increased significantly, and they have become an important reference for gauging the short-term direction of traditional markets.

A U.S. bank research report said that since the 1970s, the global economy’s reliance on oil has declined, and the oil required now is only one-third of that at the time, with economic resilience strengthening. In addition, Haitong Securities’ analysis found that gold did not exhibit safe-haven characteristics; after experiencing a pullback due to geopolitical shocks, it rebounded.

Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg strategist, argues that Bitcoin ETFs may not drive long-term growth for Bitcoin, which has underperformed compared to gold. Despite recent gains, Bitcoin's performance seems capped, suggesting a potential peak in crypto enthusiasm.

On April 10, the precious metals market was strong: gold rose to $4,773.60 per ounce, and silver rose to $76.364 per ounce. In the crypto market, volatility eased, the FX market saw the U.S. dollar weaken versus the Chinese yuan, and global equity indexes rose. In commodities, WTI crude oil rose while Brent crude oil fell. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial assets.

Banks such as Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and investment banks like Goldman Sachs predict that gold may rebound in the long term, mainly driven by central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. ANZ expects the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 outlook, saying that central bank gold purchases will be a support factor.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XPTUSD (Platinum) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

April 10, gold and silver prices fell slightly, trading at $4,758.37 per ounce and $75.165 per ounce, respectively. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIX) dropped to 44.36, and in the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rose against the offshore yuan and the Japanese yen. Major European stock indexes generally declined, while WTI and Brent crude oil rose slightly. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial market products.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XAGUSD (Silver) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News update: On April 9, according to Gate data, spot gold strengthened in the short term by $14, breaking through $4,780 per ounce, with an intraday gain of 1.28%.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XPDUSD (Palladium - Cash) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News message, on April 9, the all-chain deployment version of Tether Gold (XAUt), XAUt0, is now live on Conflux, introducing tokenized gold that can be seamlessly transferred between supported chains. Previously, USDT0 was launched on Conflux, providing unified dollar liquidity.

Gate News message, April 9, the head of the National Bank of Poland, Glapiński, said the National Bank of Poland will continue to buy gold. Glapiński reiterated the target to increase gold reserves to 700 tons; the National Bank of Poland currently holds 580 tons of gold.

After the Iran–Israel ceasefire, Bitcoin and gold both rose in sync before pulling back. From the perspective of geopolitical chess, we break down the deeper logic behind the price moves and the outlook that follows.