Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

The Office of Management and Administration at the White House sent a warning email to employees on March 23, prohibiting the use of their position to speculate in the futures market. The warning came after the announcement by Trump of a pause in attacks on Iran, and suspicious trading appeared in the market. Senior officials described the email as a timely “reminder.”

Gate News Update: On April 10, Ebrahim Azizi, the chair of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Committee, said that the Parliament has put forward a proposal to permanently ban tankers associated with the United States and Israel from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposal, ships associated with Israel or traveling to and from Israel would also be prohibited from passage. The ban would also apply to countries that take action against the “Resistance Front.”

Gate News, April 10, international crude oil prices rose briefly. WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) broke above $100 per barrel, up 2.04% during the day; Brent crude oil (North Sea Brent, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) stood above $95 per barrel, up 1.15% during the day.

Jefferies’ economists report that the Middle East conflict affects all parties. The United States is the least affected, due to oil and gas price increases, Russia is the winner, and Iran may lift sanctions. The main losers are the Gulf states and Asia, which relies on Middle East oil and gas, while Europe has lost ground geopolitically.

The Iranian government charges oil tankers a $1 per-barrel toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and requires payment in bitcoin to bypass U.S. sanctions. This move has caused extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin’s price surging, highlighting the importance of digital assets in geopolitics. Global shipping has been disrupted, Iran and the United States have taken differing positions in ceasefire talks, and financial markets have also roiled in response to this event.

Middle East crude oil producers are asking Asian refiners to submit their April and May loading schedules in preparation for restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran has not lifted its blockade of the waterway, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement offers hope for reopening. Saudi Aramco has also asked customers to apply for May loading.

Market maker Keyrock and tokenization platform Securitize jointly released a report predicting that the on-chain transferable distributed RWA market will grow from $29.0 billion to $400.0 billion, an increase of over 1,000%. It is expected that by 2028, RWA perpetual contracts could account for 50% of the total on-chain derivatives market. Currently, tokenized RWAs account for less than 0.1% of the global tokenizable market.

Middle East conflict turned for the better after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with market risk sentiment recovering. U.S. stock index futures jumped sharply. Bitcoin broke through the $72,000 high, while oil prices plunged. Although the current rebound is significant, analysts warn that uncertainty around how the ceasefire agreement will be carried out and the overall economic pressure may still limit how long the rally can last.

On April 10, analyst Yu Jin reported that a giant whale established a $74.47 million crude oil short position on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized gain of about $1.2 million. It consists of 399k barrels of WTI crude oil and 390k barrels of Brent crude oil.

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.

Bitcoin’s official rise today reached $71,800, mainly because Israel and Lebanon have begun direct negotiations, reducing market concerns about an Iran ceasefire agreement. In addition, a weaker US dollar and continued buying by institutional investors also pushed prices higher. On the technical side, Bitcoin’s key support levels are $68,500 to $70,000. A break above $76,000 to $78,000 could prompt another test of $80,000 to $85,000.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COTTON (Cotton) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

April 10, gold and silver prices fell slightly, trading at $4,758.37 per ounce and $75.165 per ounce, respectively. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIX) dropped to 44.36, and in the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rose against the offshore yuan and the Japanese yen. Major European stock indexes generally declined, while WTI and Brent crude oil rose slightly. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial market products.

Recent U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index data shows that price pressure has continued, and the market is focusing on the upcoming March CPI figures. Geopolitical conflicts are driving energy prices higher, raising concerns about a rebound in inflation, with stagnant inflation becoming the focus. Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell does not agree with this label, the impact on economic growth still needs to be closely watched.

The White House warns staff not to use their positions to bet in prediction markets, especially by engaging in unusual trading activity before policies suddenly change. Accounts that have already profited more than $600k through prediction have drawn criticism, and critics suspect that someone used insider information to profit. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the warning.

April 10, as European and Asian refineries competed for oil purchases, the price of North Sea crude surged to a record high. The spot price of Brent North Sea Forties crude was near $147 per barrel, exceeding the peak before the 2008 financial crisis, indicating signs of a shortage in the oil market.

On April 9, multiple energy infrastructure sites across Saudi Arabia were attacked, severely disrupting oil production and exports, with daily output reduced by about 1 million barrels. Several refineries were affected, lowering their capacity to export refined products. In addition, a fire at the Jaimah processing facilities disrupted LPG and LNG exports. The Ministry of Energy confirmed that one industrial security personnel has died, and some facilities have suspended operations.

Trump warned Iran not to charge tolls to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying the move violates an agreement. Despite both sides reaching a ceasefire, ship traffic remains sluggish. Economic disagreements over control of the strait could become a focus in U.S.-Iran negotiations, affecting the stability of the ceasefire.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to hold direct negotiations with Lebanon. This news boosts gains in the U.S. stock market’s S&P 500, while oil prices fall. Bitcoin’s price briefly rose to 73K; market sentiment improved slightly, but overall it has not fully rebounded. Trump urged Iran to stop its attacks to facilitate negotiations, but shipping through the strait has not improved yet.

Gate News message, on April 9, tonight April 10, the U.S. CPI data will be released. The market is focused on the impact of the “Iran premium” driven by the surge in oil prices. In the bond market, traders have increased their positions in options betting on upside in the 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. A JPMorgan Chase survey shows that currently, net long sentiment in the spot market has fallen to a three-week low. In the macro backdrop, the cumulative gain in Brent crude oil this year is already close to 60%. For interest-rate expectations, the probability the market is pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut once in 2026 is about 30%.