Airdrop潮褪，谁在裸泳？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

In the first half of 2024, the four hottest Airdrop projects (Starknet, ZKsync, LayerZero, and Blast) finally came to an end after the Airdrop, but there are still controversies on social media about their real on-chain situation. Some believe that their once dazzling on-chain data was due to the existence of users and studios, and after the Airdrop landed, they would be an "on-chain ghost town" with only "8 real users".

So what is the real situation? How many users are left when the excitement is over? Now is the time to see their true strength. In this article, Odaily Star Daily will compare and summarize these 4 projects from the perspective of on-chain active addresses, TVL, volume, and other data.

Starknet: User churn is long, but network quality has not significantly decreased

The official Token STRK Airdrop distribution period for Starknet is from February 20th to June 20th.

The number of active addresses has decreased by about 80% compared to before the Airdrop.

To sell early and avoid bearing selling pressure, many users choose to claim Airdrops early. Therefore, according to the data from Starknet's official browser starkscan, the number of daily active Addresses on the Starknet network on February 21st approached a historical high of July 2023, exceeding 380,000 Addresses.

However, after most users have claimed the Airdrop, the number of daily active Addresses has plummeted dramatically until after June 20th, when the number of daily active Addresses has dropped to the level of March 2023, around 15,000 to 20,000.

During the period from May 2023 to February 2024, before the announcement of the Airdrop, the average daily active Address of the Starknet network was about 100,000, but currently it has decreased by about 80% after the end of the Airdrop application.

TVL: After the Airdrop, the U denomination has decreased, but the coin denomination has not decreased

According to the data from Starkscan, the official browser of Starknet, the overall TVL of the Starknet network is still on the rise trend. In terms of token-based calculation, the amount of ETH locked in has been increasing. Even after the STRK Airdrop, the TVL did not decrease too much. The drop in TVL of STRK in April in the chart is due to the plummet of the coin price, but the actual total amount of locked STRK has not changed much.

There is no significant change in the daily trading volume, and the number of transactions has decreased

According to Defillama's data, the daily volume on the Starknet network showed no significant changes before and after the Airdrop, and the Airdrop did not affect users' enthusiasm for trading on the Starknet network after it ended.

However, the number of daily transactions plummeted. According to Artemis' data, the number of daily transactions on the Starknet network reached a new high on February 20, but afterwards, it showed a downward trend overall, far below the level before the airdrop.

Summary

The overall data above reflects the decrease in network active users and transaction frequency due to the withdrawal of users and studios after the Airdrop ended. However, the overall network quality has not decreased too much. The network TVL and daily trading volume did not differ too much before and after the Airdrop. At the same time, the overall decrease in transaction volume brings about a decrease in network fees and revenue after the Airdrop.

ZKsync: The highest proportion of real users, relatively good network quality

The official Token ZK Airdrop distribution of ZKsync will start on June 17th.

The number of active Addresses has decreased by about 40% compared to before the Airdrop

According to the Dune dashboard created by Matter Labs, the number of daily active Addresses for ZKsync reached a record high on the day of the Airdrop. After most users claimed their rewards, the number of daily active Addresses decreased by about 70% compared to the Airdrop day, but only dropped by about 40% compared to before the Airdrop.

TVL: U fell, but not significantly affected by airdrop factors

According to Artemis data, the TVL of ZKsync Era network has been showing a downward trend in U terms since March this year before the Airdrop has not started. After the Airdrop in June, the TVL continued to decline.

However, according to the data of L2 beat, the TVL after the ZKsync Era network Airdrop does not show a significant drop trend when calculated in terms of currency. It can be seen that the TVL drop is not significantly affected by the Airdrop, but may be more affected by other factors such as the overall market situation, coin price, and ecological development.

No significant change in daily trading volume before and after Airdrop

According to Defillama's data, due to the demand for Airdrop, the ZKsync Era network volume reached 240 million US dollars on June 17, setting a record high in 2024. However, after the Airdrop was received, the daily volume quickly returned to the average level without any significant decline.

However, similar to the active Address count, the daily transaction volume on the ZKsync Era network reached a historical high on June 16th, Airdrop day, at about 1.7 million transactions. Subsequently, the daily transaction volume decreased, approximately 50% lower than the average daily transaction volume before the Airdrop.

Summary

The above data generally reflects a relatively high proportion of real users on the ZKsync Era network, with a decrease in user and transaction frequency of only 40% to 50% before and after the Airdrop, and little impact on other network quality factors before and after the Airdrop.

LayerZero: The largest user churn, the network quality suddenly drops

LayerZero announced a Snapshot in early May and officially announced the opening of Airdrop application on June 20th.

The number of daily active addresses decreased by about 85% before the announcement of the Snapshot

According to Dune data, since LayerZero announced the Snapshot in early May, the number of on-chain active addresses has plummeted. Before May 2nd, the number of on-chain active addresses exceeded 110,000, and after May 2nd, it decreased by about 40%. It gradually reached a new low, decreasing by more than 85% compared to before the announcement of the Snapshot.

Cross-Chain Interaction messages are reduced by about 80% compared to before the airdrop

According to the data from LayerZero official browser layerzeroscan, the total number of messages using LayerZero Cross-Chain Interaction also experienced a cliff-like decline after the official announcement of Snapshot. Except for the improvement in data on the day of Airdrop collection on June 20th, the average reduction is about 80% compared to before Airdrop, returning to the level of March 2023.

Cross-Chain Interaction The amount and number of daily transactions have decreased by more than 90%.

According to Dune data, the daily funds using LayerZero for Cross-Chain Interaction plummeted after the official announcement of the Snapshot, averaging around 15 million US dollars per day, a decrease of over 90% compared to the peak before Airdrop.

Meanwhile, the daily transaction volume using LayerZero also dropped by about 47% on the day when the Snapshot was announced to end. After the Airdrop, the daily transaction volume has remained around 20,000, a decrease of over 90% compared to the average daily transaction volume of 200,000 before the Airdrop.

Summary

The above data reflects that the performance of the LayerZero network is not objective. There is a significant difference in the data before and after the Airdrop, and the user and network quality have decreased by about 90% compared to before the Airdrop. This also proves that after the withdrawal of speculative users and studios, the real user demand for LayerZero is only 1/10 of that before the Airdrop.

Blast: Insufficient user confidence, future development is worrying

Blast announced an Airdrop one week after on February 20th, and the official Token BLAST Airdrop redemption will start on June 26th.

Daily active Address continues to decline

According to Artemis' data, the overall daily active address number of Blast was on a rising trend in June, indicating that users' confidence in Blast is actually increasing. However, when the airdrop landed on June 26th, the daily active address number plummeted and returned to the level of March in just a few days, and this downward trend is still continuing.

TVL started to decline before the Airdrop

According to the data from Artemis, the TVL of the Blast network had already begun to decline when it announced the upcoming Airdrop message on its official website on June 20, and the downward trend became more obvious after the Airdrop on June 26. Funds are being withdrawn from Blast.

There is no significant change in daily trading volume, but the number of daily transactions has plummeted.

According to the data from Defillama, the volume of Blast network showed a rising trend in June, reaching its historical high on June 26 due to Airdrop distribution, but quickly returned to the average level before Airdrop in June.

The daily trading volume is similar to the daily active Address number. After Blast officially announced the Airdrop on June 20, it began to decline. The overall trend is still downward, despite a brief rebound when Blast ecosystem Decentralization Margin Trading protocol Particle opened Airdrop to users on July 2.

Summary

The above data reflects that although the first phase Airdrop of Blast has not ended for long, users' confidence in Blast is obviously insufficient. There are clear signs of retreat in both users and funds compared to before Airdrop. But from the volume, it can also be seen that due to the effects of ecological application construction and new phase Airdrop incentives, the network quality is currently in a relatively good state.

Conclusion

In summary, it can be seen that before the Airdrop, these four projects did have a significant amount of water in terms of user volume and on-chain activity. However, with the exit of a large number of free-riding users and studios after the Airdrop ended, the real on-chain data was restored, and all projects returned to their true value. At that time, we can more objectively see who is swimming naked.

For the two ETH L2 (Starknet and ZKsync) that focus on technical narrative, after the Airdrop, from the perspective of real user quantity and network quality, they are not as bad as imagined, and TVL and volume are not directly proportional to the decrease in active Address count.

On the contrary, the data before and after the L2 Blast Airdrop of the Cross-Chain Interaction protocol LayerZero showed significant differences, especially the significant decrease in the active on-chain addresses of LayerZero and the daily Cross-Chain Interaction amount. This also indirectly indicates that the true value of the Cross-Chain Interaction protocol needs further evaluation after the Airdrop bubble bursts.

Of course, the current data does not necessarily represent their performance. As the mainstream narrative develops, market conditions change, and project roadmaps progress, the market will choose projects that are truly valuable and eliminate those that rely on Airdrop point strategies to gain temporary popularity.

After all, when the Airdrop ends, it's the real deal.