Goldman Sachs predicts: The impact of the current U.S. government shutdown on the economy is the largest on record.

Jin10 Data reported on November 3 that Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a report that the current government shutdown in the United States could have a record maximum impact on the economy. “This shutdown may not only last longer than the partial shutdown of 35 days in 2018-2019 but is also broader than previous long shutdowns, which only affected a few agencies.” A longer shutdown could have a greater impact on federal government procurement and investment, and could potentially cause spillover effects on private sector activity. Goldman Sachs expects that if the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized quarterly growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, while the decline in the first quarter of 2026 would be exacerbated by some spillover effects from federal procurement and investment, reaching 1.3 percentage points.